China has begun drawing from its commercial crude reserves to cushion the loss of imports caused by the Iran war. Analysts say the country will average about 1 million barrels a day in the coming months, a third of the crude China stopped receiving after the Strait of Hormuz shut down.

The drawdown lets China keep refinery output low and limit fuel exports, easing pressure on global prices. With its inventory now at record highs, the State‑owned refineries have cut processing rates to historic lows, while a shift to electric vehicles has shaved roughly 1 million barrels a day from demand this quarter.

Despite the shock, Brent has risen less than a third since the conflict began, reflecting China’s restraint in tapping international markets. Analysts predict imports may stay subdued for months, which could keep prices from rebounding sharply.

China’s commercial drawdown, combined with its strategic reserves—reported at about 1.2 billion barrels—shows the country’s capacity to buffer supply shocks. The move signals that Beijing will keep refining output low until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, after which it may resume larger foreign purchases.