China’s pork production in 2024 is forecast to decline 1% to 55.95 Mt year on year, driven by lower slaughter from reduced pig inventories and disease pressures. Producers have sold pigs early and cut capacity, with some smaller operators exiting. Wholesale prices have been volatile, falling from a high of 35.7 yuan/kg in October 2022 to 18.8 yuan/kg in July before recovering to 22.4 yuan/kg in late September. The government stockpiled 40,000 tonnes in July to replenish reserves, supporting prices.

Pork accounts for roughly 60% of China’s meat consumption, but the post-COVID rebound failed to materialize as a slowing economy weakens demand. Consumption is expected to dip in 2024 despite autumn holidays. Imports reached 1.90 Mt in January–August 2023, up 165,000 tonnes year on year but well below 2021 levels.

Spain remains the top supplier but lost market share, dropping to 23% from 26% in 2022, a trend across Europe. The US, Brazil, and Canada have gained share, now holding 16%, 16%, and 9% respectively. With Russia’s import ban lifted, another competitor may emerge. Comfortable supply means demand will drive the market ahead.