Chile expects only a modest copper output recovery next year following a historic slump, leaving production well below recent levels. State copper commission Cochilco cut its 2027 forecast to 5.08 million metric tons, implying a 3% rebound. This years estimate was slashed to 4.94 million tons from 5.27 million amid accidents and wild weather, representing an 8.4% annual drop. The subdued outlook underscores the challenge facing a country accounting for more than a fifth of global mined copper while supply struggles to keep pace with electrification demand.
Chilean output sank to its lowest quarterly level in at least two decades through September. The downturn has been concentrated at major operations, with Codelco and BHP Group accounting for 77% of the net decline due to lower ore grades, maintenance, and processing interruptions. Cochilco sees worldwide production recovering 3.4% in 2027 after contracting 0.6% this year, with Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo together accounting for about 37% of the increase.
The refined market will remain tight, with Cochilco forecasting a surplus next year equivalent to just 0.8% of consumption. Copper-price forecasts were raised to $6.18 a pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027, from $5.95 and $5.10 previously. Demand for refined copper is expected to grow 1.5% this year and 1.8% in 2027, even as growth in China slows to 1% from 1.6%.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing