SPX’s overseas ambitions, once hailed as innovative, now seem strained. The firm’s 12% annual returns between 2015-2022 relied on bets in Mexico, Hungary, and U.S. rates, but recent missteps in Brazil exposed vulnerabilities. As clients demand sharper focus, Andrade’s pivot to macro trading from Cascais—a coastal outpost—may determine SPX’s survival.

With $49 billion at stake and investor patience thinning, the fund’s next move could redefine Brazil’s high-yield finance landscape.