When we last spoke with James Bosworth, an "orange wave" seemed poised to sweep Latin America and realign the region's interests with those of the Trump administration. But with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's surprise victory in Brazil's presidential election, and opposition leader María Corina Machado's return to Venezuela, that wave may now be cresting.
Bosworth, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of the Latin America Risk Report newsletter, returns to explain how Lula pulled off his upset win over Flavio Bolsonaro. He also examines the impact of Machado's return to Venezuela, a development that has reshaped the political calculations of the region.
Bosworth argues that the outcome in Brazil signals a shift in the momentum that had been building behind right-leaning governments across the hemisphere. Voter sentiment, economic pressures and the performance of incumbents all played a part in determining the result, he says.
Looking further ahead, Bosworth points to 2027 as a potentially decisive year. Upcoming elections across the region could further reshape the politics of Latin America, with implications for trade, security and the region's relationship with Washington.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing