Flávio Bolsonaro's push to elect a Senate majority willing to remove Supreme Court justices he views as enemies of his family is running into early obstacles. Opinion polls suggest the conservative sweep he is seeking will be difficult to achieve. The strategy, central to the Bolsonaro family's political survival, requires winning a two-thirds Senate majority in October's elections to impeach justices on the Supreme Federal Court (STF).

Current polling indicates the coalition led by former President Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) will likely fall short of the 54 seats needed. Simone Iglesias and Gabriel Diniz Tavares report that resistance from moderate senators and the court's institutional defenses are complicating the plan. The STF has recently ruled against Bolsonaro allies in key cases, escalating tensions. Failure to secure the supermajority could leave the Bolsonaros vulnerable to ongoing investigations.