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Argentina Q1 Growth Beats Forecasts Amid Wage‑Inflation Gap

Bloomberg Markets •
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Argentina’s economy expanded in the first quarter, outpacing analysts’ forecasts despite a backdrop of rising joblessness and wages that lagged price gains. The growth signal steadied a market that had been jittery over the country’s fiscal adjustments, giving investors a modest reprieve after months of volatility. The surprise arrived as the government held to a gradual devaluation and modest fiscal tightening.

The data, released by the national statistics agency, showed GDP rising faster than the 1.5% consensus, while the unemployment rate edged higher to around 9%. Wage growth remained below the inflation rate, eroding real purchasing power for consumers. Analysts warn the wage lag may curb consumer confidence.

Investors read the mixed signals as a cue to watch fiscal policy closely. A stronger‑than‑expected output may ease debt‑service concerns, yet persistent wage‑inflation gaps could trigger tighter monetary moves. Exporters may gain from a weaker peso that supports competitiveness.