Aluminum prices edged higher as the US military campaign against Iran raised concerns about Middle East supply disruptions. President Trump suggested the conflict could last weeks, potentially impacting smelters in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia that rely on regional raw materials. The metal rose as much as 1% to $3,196.50 a ton before pulling back.

Middle East producers account for 9% of global aluminum output, with about a fifth excluding China. Goldman Sachs warned that a month of lost production could push prices to $3,600 a ton, though their base case remains $3,150 for the first half. The conflict has already shaken the sector, with Emirates Global Aluminum reporting export delays and drawing on stockpiles outside the region.

Other base metals also gained in early London trading. Copper rose 0.2% to $13,196 a ton while zinc increased 0.1% to $3,321 a ton. Rio Tinto Group withdrew initial supply offers to Japanese customers, citing concerns about regional premiums. The situation highlights how geopolitical tensions can quickly disrupt global commodity markets, particularly for metals concentrated in volatile regions.