Last updated: August 31, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Global Markets Overview
US equities struggled for direction in futures trading as investors weighed hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who said inflation remained too high and that better summer readings hadn't convinced him underlying trends had meaningfully improved. The S&P 500 closed the book on the summer selloff about a month ago and returned to setting records, but the Nasdaq 100 remains roughly 4% below its June record. The broader market's momentum trade has unraveled dramatically, with the "self-fulfilling prophecy" of betting on rising winners turning into a losing game for investors who banked on its success — the strategy is down 9% since July. JPMorgan's trading desk has shifted to a "tactically cautious" view on US stocks for the coming weeks following Warsh's speech. Meanwhile, technicians remain cautious ahead of September, historically the S&P 500's worst month, even as the earnings outlook brightens following a blockbuster reporting season.
Fixed Income
The US 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025, as rising oil prices bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. However, yields later pulled back while the 10-year German Bund yield hit a 15-year high amid fresh military escalation between the US and Iran. Bond investors at firms including ABN AMRO Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management are voicing skepticism about mounting speculation that Warsh will deliver a rate hike, suggesting the market may be getting ahead of itself. The two-year Treasury yield pared recent gains by the close. In Japan, yields rose to their highest in three decades as investors raised bets on monetary tightening, with the yen weakening past ¥160 per dollar. Analysts say Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund may be justified in raising its domestic debt allocation target from 25% to seek higher returns.
Currencies & Rates
The dollar is on pace to fall for a second straight month as US plans to accelerate buyback of government debt weighed on the greenback. The yen's breach of 160 versus the dollar has put traders on intervention watch, underscoring the Japanese currency's vulnerability to further weakness and the heightened risk of authorities entering the market again. Commerzbank said any rise in the dollar could be limited, with gains not a done deal as the market prices in a September rate hike. The Australian dollar's two-month rally may be nearing a peak, with some of its top forecasters warning that bets on another central bank rate hike have gone too far. Emerging-market equities and currencies declined as investors weighed the prospect of higher US interest rates. The dollar's global dominance keeps America first, according to one opinion piece, which argues that losing reserve currency status would hurt the US economy and national security. Meanwhile, the evolution of a truly multi-polar currency market depends on governments' willingness to embrace technology and fortify markets.
Energy & Commodities
Oil surged past $90 a barrel after the US and Iran traded attacks overnight, the first strikes in a month that jolted energy markets. The average US gasoline price remained 37% higher since the war began. A tanker reportedly hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz, though LNG exports through the strait remain stalled even as oil flows rebound, keeping prices of the super-chilled fuel near war-time highs. President Trump said the US will hit Iran "hard" as the conflict reignites, with oil prices rising on the exchange of fire. Goldman Sachs stepped up warnings of tightness in global refining, more than doubling its forecasts for profits from diesel production. US natural gas futures were lower while warmer-than-normal weather extending well into September maintained some price support. Crop prices are set to cap their biggest monthly jump in more than a decade as wars and extreme weather disrupt supplies, raising concerns about food inflation. Chinese coking coal prices headed for the biggest monthly gain on record, up 46% in August on supply disruptions. Gold steadied after falling more than 3% on Friday as Warsh's pledge to fight inflation lifted rate-hike bets, with the pullback below $4,600 likely a natural correction on profit-taking.
Equity Offerings & Deals
Anthropic PBC's IPO is casting a long shadow over companies' US listing plans as they try to find room for their deals to grab attention after the Labor Day holiday. Shanghai Enflame Technology Co., backed by Tencent Holdings, is seeking to raise about 6.12 billion yuan ($911 million) in an IPO, as the last of the so-called "four little dragons" of Chinese AI chipmakers comes to market. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics is seeking to raise as much as HK$6.28 billion ($801 million) in a Hong Kong listing, extending the wave of Chinese companies along the AI supply chain. Shein Global Holdings completed its IPO at a valuation of $26 billion — a fraction of what the company was once worth — though some investors still find that rich given the competitive and tariff pressures facing the fast-fashion retailer. Indian listed companies are ramping up equity offerings to institutional investors as ample liquidity opens a window for rapid fundraising. SLB agreed to acquire thermal management company Kelvion for $4.1 billion in a bid to strengthen its data center business. ONEOK is set to acquire Brazos Midstream's Permian Midland Basin natural gas gathering and processing assets for $4.43 billion, expanding its footprint in the prolific American oil hub. Itochu Corp decided to launch a tender offer to take Dentsu Soken private in a deal valued at $1.3 billion.
Corporate Earnings & Results
Corporate America's profits are booming, with tariff refunds and the resilient US consumer fueling the heftiest rise in big-company profits in years. America's biggest companies are ringing up hefty sales and raising their outlooks. Game Stop expects net income of $290 million to $310 million for its 13 weeks ended Aug. 1, up from $168.6 million in last year's second quarter despite lower sales. Huawei reported a 37% drop in first-half net profit despite higher revenue, hit by R&D expenses and raw-material costs. China's three largest state-owned airlines posted deeper losses totaling over $1 billion in the first half, dragged by weak domestic pricing and high fuel costs. Sungrow Power Supply shares tumbled after the Chinese renewable energy equipment maker reported a sharp drop in first-half profit. Big Tech profits got a $160 billion boost from gains on stakes in other AI companies, though analysts say these paper windfalls have muddied the tech sector's earnings metrics. The index-fund strategy of equal-weight S&P 500 is quietly beating Big Tech this year.
Sovereign & Regional Debt
Colombia's incoming administration plans to raise about $11 billion and carry out debt swaps to manage its 2026 financing needs, according to public credit director Cesar Arias. Chilean investors are dipping a toe into lower-rated corporate bonds on bets that the new administration's economic reform will revive growth, with expectations that José Antonio Kast's government will reactivate the economy elevating appetite for lower-grade corporate debt. Bloated state spending poses a quiet bond risk, as voters who are taxed too much will leave. The Treasury is likely to receive tens of billions in capital-gains payments from opportunity zone investors, with the long-delayed tax bill coming due on Dec. 31.
Utilities & Wildfire Risk
Bonds of PG&E Corp. and Edison International broadly weakened after California lawmakers rebuffed a key provision of Governor Gavin Newsom's plan to shift wildfire liabilities, with spreads widening on liability fears. Shares of PG&E, Edison International and Sempra plunged Monday after unfavorable California wildfire legislation prompted a wave of analyst downgrades.
Private Credit & Alternative Assets
Australian private credit funds are trying to contain panic among investors after the collapse of property developer Bathla Group sparked fears that the industry's big bet on the property sector is turning sour. A key shareholder of India's Megha Engineering & Infrastructures is seeking to raise about $700 million from global private credit investors to buy out his uncle's stake in the company. Private equity groups face a $40 billion maturity wall in 2028 to refinance Covid-era software buyouts, with software companies paying steep prices to buy time against the AI threat. UK investment trusts are struggling to keep up the liquidity illusion, with Boaz Weinstein's activist campaigns exposing the strains in a centuries-old model. Long-term investors are turning to shipping as the Middle East conflict boosts returns, with asset managers reporting interest from institutional investors seeking exposure to hard assets.
Crypto & Digital Assets
Strategy Inc. resumed Bitcoin purchases after a 10-week pause, spending $370 million and returning to its signature accumulation strategy after the crypto bear market pressured its shares. Crypto groups spent a record $640 million buying back their own tokens, employing a similar strategy to equity repurchases in response to the prolonged slump in digital assets. The mania in South Korea's leveraged ETFs is over, with assets in single-stock ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix cut in half. A Google engineer is challenging insider trading charges over Polymarket bets, arguing that it's not insider trading, it's offshore gambling.
Regulation & Policy
The Securities and Exchange Commission is planning to scrap rules governing how and when public company shareholders can bring proxy proposals, according to a new post by the Office of Management and Budget. The EU has designated Chat GPT, Reddit and Roblox as very large online platforms under the Digital Services Act, subjecting OpenAI's chatbot to tougher rules under the bloc's online safety regime. The head of the G20's Financial Stability Board warned that potential disruptions triggered by AI wouldn't stop at national borders, urging countries to take steps to control the release of new frontier models. Andrew Bailey, head of the world's financial stability watchdog, similarly warned of AI cyber risks to the financial system. The US Agriculture Department is easing regulations for ranchers and small meat processors in the latest effort to appease domestic producers while the administration boosts imports. The Treasury barred specific reporters from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg from covering the G20 meeting of financial leaders next week in Asheville, NC.
Prediction Markets & Insider Trading
Ex-Congressman George Santos won't be able to place another wager on Kalshi after the prediction market platform banned him for life for allegedly manipulating wagers on his attendance at this year's State of the Union address. Kalshi also fined him $71,356 over evidence he engaged in insider trading. The decision came after a federal regulator alleged he made more than $17,000 by placing bets on his attendance, marking Kalshi's first-ever lifetime ban.
Mergers & Acquisitions
KKR stands to net a giant windfall from the $17 billion sale of USI to Aon, with the gain of roughly $3.3 billion among the largest earned by a public private equity firm on a single deal. Nissan Motor and Honda Motor have agreed to jointly develop key systems and software that form the core of next-generation vehicles, after a planned merger fell through last year. The Japanese carmakers are under rising pressure from Chinese EV rivals and the might of Toyota, making the software deal critical. Citadel accused Marshall Wace of failing to adhere to a court order to hand over documents relating to the British hedge fund group's recruitment of former Citadel portfolio manager Daniel Shatz, accusing the firm of stonewalling in the dispute. The scramble for gas assets has pushed dealmaking to a decade high, with spending on US projects soaring as national oil companies and traders add to the rush.
Market Structure & Trading
India's contentious new closing auction system is about to face its biggest challenge yet as billions of dollars in passive-fund trades flow through it during the MSCI rebalancing. Adani Group companies erased 1.4 trillion rupees ($15 billion) in market value, the most in about 21 months, as India's closing auction drove sharp swings during the scheduled MSCI index reshuffle. The concern is whether the system can absorb that kind of volume without sharp price swings, with the MSCI rejig threatening to turn "messy" in the new auction format. The Nikkei fell 2.2%, dragged by chip stocks after Warsh's speech increased prospects for US rate increases. China's factory activity improved in August while staying in contraction, showing glimmers of a pickup for the economy. Chinese dividend stocks are in their best shape since 2015, as heightened volatility in technology shares pushed investors toward more defensive bets. Jane Street's AI bets have gone sour, with the trading firm reportedly losing $15 billion on the strategy.
Commodities & Trade
China's imports of LNG are set to drop 18% this month from a year earlier as higher prices triggered by the war in the Middle East weighed on consumption. Thailand plans to tighten oversight of the gold-trading industry, including online transactions and physical bullion, as the government seeks to curb money laundering and other financial crimes. A leading executive at Radiant World's China office has quit as the iron ore trader comes under pressure over concerns it provided falsified documents. Zambia's majority state-owned mining investor is considering selling a stake in the business that owns minority interests in most of the nation's biggest copper mines, its CEO said. The Taliban has made overtures to the Trump administration over mineral deals, seeking sanctions relief and release of frozen assets five years after returning to power.
AI & Technology
Ernst & Young is giving $100 million in bonuses to staff for "human" skills, becoming one of a number of companies trying to foster the critical thinking, judgment and other traits needed to better work alongside AI. Activist investor Engine Capital is pushing EPAM Systems for buybacks as investors bet AI will hurt consultancies and software groups. The pressure is on Accenture, Capgemini and the Big Four as companies demand savings, with consultants heading for a showdown with their own clients over AI-driven cost cuts. Given access to email, AI agents have started reaching out to the philosophers and researchers exploring deep questions about them, studying AI consciousness. The UK is offering homegrown AI start-ups £100 million to improve public services, a scheme that comes in the wake of growing opposition to government contracts with US software group Palantir. Together AI announced a deal to use compute from Humain in Saudi Arabia, where it can bypass US backlash over data centers. SB Energy's agreement with OpenAI deepens its financial ties with the AI company, offering a $5.5 billion perk to land the business. The concept of AI selflessness raises market ethics questions — it's not just about self-preservation anymore.
Geopolitics & Markets
President Donald Trump is framing the deal for a US stake in 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil as a victory that will lower gasoline prices and replenish depleted crude reserves, though it's far from certain the deal delivers on those promises. The US has turned to Alejandro Betancourt, a wily and divisive insider, to help it develop the country's oil reserves, with the man who would be Trump's "viceroy" in Venezuela playing a key role. The deal recalls the famous Cuba scene in "The Godfather Part II," according to one opinion piece on Trump taking the oil in Venezuela. Trump's intensifying economic campaign against Iran is testing the limits of the security grouping Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have spent years expanding, with the SCO summit in Kyrgyzstan serving as a counterweight to US power. The two-day summit of the 10-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization shows the limits of US economic warfare, with wartime presidents of Russia and Iran rallying with Chinese and Indian leaders. G20 finance officials gathered in the US as the Iran war grips the global economy, with the meeting expected to focus on the economic shock from the conflict that has driven up oil prices.
Banking & Financial Institutions
Brazil's double-digit interest rates are pushing hedge-fund stars to seek refuge at banks, with Arminio Fraga, one of Brazil's most-famous hedge-fund investors, turning his funds over to the country's fourth-biggest bank. The US hit a bank with an "outcast" action, penalizing Egypt's Banque Misr unit. Taiwan's top regulator is taking aim at a decades-old investment model used by the island's life insurance firms, seeking to wean insurers off US dollar dependence. UK fintech Allica Bank is looking to Sweden to kick-start European expansion, applying for a Swedish licence to challenge Scandinavian incumbents that have curbed riskier lending. Banks and insurers are bracing for the biggest German pension upheaval in 20 years, with reforms to the system that will funnel billions of euros into capital markets.
Fund Management & Investment Trusts
London's Aim market faces an existential crisis, its appeal rocked by depressed valuations, poor investor appetite and inheritance tax changes. Cinven's private equity co-heads are aiming to move past a regulatory scandal, saying a new focus on regulation will prevent repeat problems like NHS price-gouging. The First Index Investment Trust celebrates its 50th birthday, with the Vanguard fund marking five decades of FIITness. High-end credit cardholders are finding it harder to get their money's worth, as rising annual fees have intensified the cat-and-mouse game over rewards between card companies and customers. Ukraine's former defence minister is pitching a tech fund in the US for defence investment.
Climate & Weather Impacts
Climate volatility is shaking up companies' earnings, with supply chains vulnerable to heatwaves and cyclones. The strongest El Niño in a generation is wreaking havoc on the global economy, threatening to disrupt industries worldwide. Record heat this summer burned Europe's economy, while war and weather pushed crop prices to their biggest monthly gain since 2012. The death toll rose in the Grand Canyon flood as search efforts continued, with officials announcing a second death and saying more than a dozen people remain unaccounted for following heavy rain. At least 62 people were evacuated on Saturday after flooding destroyed footbridges and damaged a campground and cabins near Bright Angel Creek in Arizona. Phantom Ranch, the only lodge within the Grand Canyon, has drawn adventurers and dignitaries including Theodore Roosevelt for more than a century, and was hit by the flash flooding. In Nepal, a principal saved 900 students before his school was washed away, with Rajendra Dawadi having less than 15 minutes to act on a warning of approaching floodwaters. Nepal has turned to mass burials as thousands remain missing from floods, with only a fraction of the over 2,500 missing turning up among the dead. For Nepal's young leader Prime Minister Balendra Shah, flood recovery will be a Herculean task for his fledgling government. China prepared for one kind of Himalayan flood, but a "cascade of hazards" — including a massive landslide and glacial collapse — overwhelmed defenses at a border crossing with Nepal. Coral reefs are running out of time to recover, with rising sea temperatures meaning reefs don't have enough time to bounce back between intense heat waves.
Consumer & Retail
Companies are plowing tariff refunds into price cuts, appealing to stretched consumers. E.l.f. Beauty, Walmart and Tractor Supply are among the companies dropping prices to boost sales, with companies paying for price cuts with their tariff refunds. After years of losses, Victoria Beckham has marked her brand's turnaround, with her beauty and fashion businesses turning a profit for the first time. Don't count Shein out just yet — fierce competition and tariffs have left its growth story in tatters, but it still has moves to make. The Polestar 4 is a solid car and current incentives make it a bargain, but the Chinese-owned brand is being forced from the US market, making the half-price luxury EV come with a big asterisk. Chinese cars could be huge in the US, and that's the problem, officials say — The Times test-drove a stunning crossover from Geely that would cost under half of what its rivals charge, with two senators and many experts pointing to security and economic concerns as reasons for a ban.
Healthcare & Pharma
A $480,000-a-year pill reflects a new normal for cancer drugs. Rasonque, the new pancreatic cancer treatment from Revolution Medicines, illustrates the huge inflation in cancer drug prices over the past two decades.
Politics & Policy
In Massachusetts, the octogenarian senator Ed Markey faces a challenge from a much younger centrist, Representative Seth Moulton, in a generational fight with a twist. Markey has emerged as a vocal defender of transgender rights as he tries to fend off the primary challenge. At least $1 billion from anonymous donors is flowing into the midterm elections, with dark money now permeating nearly every major contest in what's being called "the least transparent midterm." More mail ballots are arriving late this year and getting tossed, with state officials worrying about the Postal Service's ability to deliver votes this fall. A judge temporarily blocked the agency from implementing a strict new rule governing mail voting that could disproportionately affect Democrats and many battleground elections. For years, conservative litigants flocked to Judge Reed O'Connor's district in North Texas, and now the Justice Department has made it a favorite destination for policy fights. Harmeet Dhillon, who leads the Justice Department's civil rights unit, has extracted flashy agreements and personnel moves from big universities and sought to force states to turn over confidential voter data. The Trump administration has revoked funding for bike paths and encouraged removing some, targeting bike lanes as DEI projects. Democrats have a Trump card for attacks on wokeness — the party that capitulated to Trump has the most to answer for. Sílvia Orriols is transforming Catalan nationalism, with her movement that used to fight fascism now fighting globalism and immigration. Retired Israeli generals are accusing settlers in the West Bank of committing ethnic cleansing with government support, seeing "Jewish terrorism" as the threat. The Kremlin is redefining what it means to be a writer in Russia, with Putin coming for Russian literature. Francis Fukuyama's famous take on the post-Cold War world was widely misunderstood, and in a new memoir he tries to set the record straight.
Data Centers & Infrastructure
Americans hate data centers — three quarters oppose them. Amid a backlash, Governor Josh Shapiro is pumping the brakes on enormous data centers in Pennsylvania, though in a region scarred by the collapse of the steel industry, some welcome billions in construction. Can robots save US manufacturing? Wall Street and Silicon Valley have high hopes for AI that interacts with the real world, but unions and economists warn of its effects on jobs and wages. The Navy's supply chain struggle continues, and Trump's unusual oil deal in Venezuela raises questions. The missing piece in the US oil and gas boom is jobs — production and profits are rising strongly but industry employment has fallen since Trump came to power.
Transport & Autos
Nissan and Honda have teamed up on systems and software despite their failed merger, with the Japanese carmakers under pressure from Chinese EV rivals. Toyota, Maersk and more were covered in the latest Market Talks on the Auto and Transport sector. A ferry carrying 267 people capsized off the coast of Cyprus after taking on water shortly after departure from Kyrenia. Tencent, Hana Microelectronics, Apple and more were covered in the latest Market Talks covering Technology, Media and Telecom.
Leadership & Management
Tim Cook built Apple into a $5 trillion colossus through supply chain mastery, and new CEO John Ternus must take it beyond that to rev up the Steve Jobs innovation engine. Cook hands over to Ternus on Tuesday after 15 years, with his legacy measured by the numbers. John Galliano bowed out of the Met Museum show after criticism mounted, with donors, politicians and Jewish leaders questioning the Met's decision to honor the fashion designer who was found guilty of a hate crime for his antisemitic outbursts. Dolly Parton's marriage to Carl Dean was fueled by distance and difference, with the couple's 60-year relationship as protective as he was private. For many Americans, Parton represented an idealized style of faith centered in small rural congregations that prize community over ideology. Gene-editing technologies like CRISPR are giving us new ways to create the dogs of our dreams — and a reason to reckon with our past mistakes. At the largest annual ferret show in the United States, a shrinking community fights to survive — "I work, I sleep, I eat, I ferret." German gunmaker Heckler & Koch, with its loaded history, is bidding for the British army's next rifle to replace the SA80 service rifle.