A nor’easter in September is unusual. As its forecast took shape on Tuesday, there was still uncertainty over what it would do. A storm could bring heavy rain to New York this week, but forecasters warned the exact path was still very uncertain. Sept. 22, 2026 Updated 5:46 p.m. ET The East Coast of the United States hasn’t experienced a hurricane this year, but forecasters have warned that a storm taking shape this week could bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rain as it moves through the region.

Forming on Wednesday in the western Atlantic, off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, the storm is forecast to intensify as it moves north in the coming days. The biggest impacts are expected from Friday into the weekend, especially along the New England coast. But on Tuesday, there was still a lot of uncertainty about the storm’s exact path and how strong it will become, which could lead to vastly different impacts over the coming days.

What to know as the storm takes shape The setup The scenarios The impacts Is El Niño to blame? The setup The storm is technically a nor’easter, a type of storm that more commonly stirs visions of heavy snow and plunging temperatures. But the term applies broadly to storms that move along the Eastern Seaboard with winds that blow from the northeast. These types of storms typically occur between November and March.

A nor’easter in September would be relatively early, but not unheard of. That much forecasters were certain of on Tuesday. But as with many of those classic wintertime nor’easters, there is considerable uncertainty about what this storm will do over the next few days and where it will do it.

The scenarios In the days before a storm actually forms, weather forecasters use computer prediction models to help them understand where it might go. The nearer those models are to the date of the storm, the more accurate they tend to be. And sometimes, as with this one, the models can disagree about a storm’s most likely path, which becomes clearer only as the days advance.

If this storm becomes more organized just a bit later or earlier, or if it shifts a little to the east or to the west as it moves north, there are significant differences in where the strongest winds and rain would occur. Some models on Tuesday showed the storm staying farther offshore, and others brought it closer to the Northeast coast. Bob Oravec, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service, said this storm could be notably strong, with the potential for multiple days of strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf, rip currents and possible beach erosion.“Especially from Cape Cod northward to coastal Massachusetts, maybe into Boston, coastal New Hampshire, coastal Maine,” he said early Tuesday. “Really anywhere along the New England coast could be stormy.”Depending on the storm’s exact track, rain and strong winds could also reach areas farther inland across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, Mr. Oravec said.

The impacts Emergency agencies and local weather offices along the East Coast were already preparing for the storm, even as the path was uncertain. In North Carolina, gale watches were upgraded to warnings on Tuesday, because forecasters said strong winds from the storm were expected to arrive sooner. A coastal watch was also issued for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, a part of the state where dozens of beachfront houses have been swept away by powerful waves in recent years.

Forecasters said the strongest winds and greatest risk of coastal impacts there were expected Thursday into Friday, particularly across the Outer Banks as the storm coincides with the peak lunar tides of the month. Seas and surf could become increasingly dangerous through the weekend, even far from the storm’s center. From North Carolina to Boston, and most points in between, local Weather Service offices expected seas to be 10 feet or...