Good morning. It's Yom Kippur. The midterms are 43 days away with polls looking grim for Republicans. While the party out of power typically fares well, Democrats need extraordinary victories to retake the Senate, including seats where Trump won by 11+ points. Nate Cohn notes this is "really tough, even in a wave year." Democrats may gain House control but fewer districts are competitive.

Reader questions addressed: Trump's claim of $5,000 checks for every American if Republicans sweep. Bayliss Wagner explains federal law prohibits paying people to vote, but universal payments resemble tax cut promises and may be protected political speech per a 1982 Supreme Court ruling.

On campaign spending: Lisa Lerer notes candidates can win despite being outspent 16-to-1, citing Angie Nixon beating Alex Vindman in Florida and Kamala Harris outspending Donald Trump 2-to-1 in 2024 yet losing. Money is necessary but not sufficient; campaigns need viability funds and message delivery.

Regarding QAnon: Stuart Thompson reports the movement is dead but its conspiratorial approach persists. Q stopped posting, followers absorbed into the Republican Party and anti-vaccine communities, with narratives shifting to transgender issues and Jeffrey Epstein. Trump's administration winks at QAnon on social media.