Terakhir diperbarui: September 8, 2026, 6:42 AM ET
Pasar
Saham-saham Asia menguat tipis pada Jumat sore setelah aksi jual semalam di Wall Street, dengan fokus pasar beralih pada pidato dari sejumlah pejabat Federal Reserve setelah sebagian besar data menunjukkan bahwa inflasi AS mereda. Para pengambil kebijakan bank sentral menyambut data mingguan klaim pengangguran yang naik dan harga produsen yang turun, sementara para pedagang tetap memperkirakan penurunan suku bunga Fed bulan depan. Sentimen pasar juga didukung oleh laporan Reuters bahwa Menteri Keuangan Jepang telah mengindikasikan bahwa pemerintahan berikutnya akan menangguhkan kenaikan pajak untuk pembangunan kembali pasca-bencana, meningkatkan harapan likuiditas rumah tangga yang lebih tinggi. Nikkei 225 turun tipis 0.07% minggu ini. S&P 500 turun 0.4% mendekati penutupan Asian session. Bitcoin traded near $86,000. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose 3 basis points to 4.34%. Gold rose. Would you like breaking news in your inbox? Subscribe to the Markets Weekly newsletter.
BLACKWELL-IPP POLITICS/UNITED STATES
Today, the Society for Human Resource Management released a statement that it will no longer require employees to use the term DEI in its operations, in acknowledgement that the acronym has become “politicized.” The move comes as employers across America reassess their programs.
BLACKWELL-IPP APPOINTMENTS
BLACKWELL-IPP WEALTH ADVISORY / APPOINTMENTS
MONEY COMMENTARY:
THE WASHINGTON POST
Senate confirms Pam Bondi as attorney general; Kirsten Gillibrand wins subcommittee gavel; Trump says “all options on the table” for Iran — with Israeli officials hoping that he means it; RFK Jr. reportedly courts Democrats for support before confirmation vote; House GOP releases plan for $1.5T in cuts with tricky math. The confirmation vote for Bondi was 54–46, with two Republicans joining all Senate Democrats in opposition.
THE NEW YORK TIMES
DEI Crackdown Threatens to Push Companies Back to the Shadows: Starting today, a Pentagon directive compels contractors to certify they don’t promote diversity, equity, and inclusion. This comes after federal contractors were given a 5-day ultimatum to eliminate DEI programs or lose business.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The Pentagon has drafted a list of tech and defense companies to partner with in a $100 billion nuclear-tipped drone program. Also notable: The Pentagon has shifted to a more aggressive annual budget outlook; and Canoo’s attempts to work with states failed before bankruptcy.
FINANCIAL TIMES
U.S. stocks drifted toward a record high at midday on Monday, maintaining Friday’s momentum, despite new tariffs. The S&P 500 edged up 0.3%, the Dow was flat, and the Nasdaq was up 0.5%, with both the S&P and Nasdaq hovering near their early January peaks toughing Monday’s session.
BLOOMBERG
Published: 2025-01-07 09:52:15
GGL: Global Markets 2026-01-25: Oil holds near $74 as traders weigh Iran sanctions vs potential trade war fallout
Oil held near $74 a barrel as investors weighed new U.S. sanctions on Iran against potential fallout from a wider trade war that could weigh on the global economyament, with the FTSE 100 down 0.2% and the CAC 40 flat, while US futures were lower. Asian markets were mixed. India’s Sensex fell after a slide in Reliance Industries shares, while Chinese stocks rose ahead of the Lunar New Year break. Gold neared record highs.
— U.S. stocks are hovering near record highs as investors bet the Fed will cut interest rates this year, even after the central bank held rates steady at its January meetingholidays. London copper, aluminum and zinc rose; tin hit a 3-month high. Gold rose 0.0500000000000000% to $2,742.27 for troy ounce. Silver gained 1% to $30.88.
Iwate Prefecture Earthquake
A magnitude. quaake struck off the coast of Iwate Prefecture in northeastern Japan at around 00:30 a.m. local time, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. There were no reports of damage, and no tsunami warning was issued, according to public broadcaster NHK.
U.S. Regional Banks
Regional banking shares have provided “a taste” of what could be in store if the Federal Reserve opts not to cut rates this year, according to analysts at Danelys. The regional bank index fell yel and 12% last week, and is down 20% from its March 9, 2027 highwater mark.
Iran Disruptions
Iran’s OPEC governor Hossein Ayatollahi said OPEC consensus decision-making is weakening the group’s market power)Skip to next paragraph.
Iran’s OPEC governor blamed “consensus” decision-making inside OPEC for the group’s weakening market power, saying the bloc’s response to rising U.S. output has been insufficient. That comes as the U.S. is pumping at near record levels crowded with two of OPEC’s top producers’ output quota increases.
Markets analysis
The S&P 500’s rally is becoming ‘too narrow,’ which “usually doesn’t end well,” in the opinion of Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin.
That’s the key day-ahead catalyst. The number of stocks within the index beating the index is the lowest since 1990. Market gaps at the open and close, and ‘active’ stocks underperforming passive equivalents — in Morgan Stanley’s view these are signs of crowded positioning.
Earnings
Julian Assange’s exit from the Ecuadorean embassy in 2019 was a key moment in the evolution of the case that led to his release, according to people familiar with the matter. Assange, will plead guilty to a single count of conspiracy to obtain and disclose national defense information and is due to be sentenced to time served at a hearing Wednesday in Saipan, the capital of the Northern Mariana Islands. Department of Justice lawyers have already boarded a flight with the resolution, according to people familiar with the matter.
Smart Brevity
Personal-rate announcements from the Federal Reserve have drawn criticism for being too top-down. A review of how the Fed communicates suggests adopting a more modest approach could be more effective. Silence is golden, and signaling humility works.
- China’s National Bureau of Statistics announces key economic indicators at 10 p.m. ET on Monday, including fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production, and third-quarter GDP.
- Switzerland’s Federal Statistical Office publishes September trade data early Tuesday.
- The New York Federal Reserve releases May import prices and net long-term TIC flows data at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- The U.S. Census Bureau’s May retail sales report will be out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- The Treasury releases international capital flows data (TIC) at 4 p.m. ET.
- Eurozone May CPI data is due Tuesday.
- Bank of England ‘Quantitative Tightening’ (QT) details are due Tuesday.
Earnings
- Peloton Interactive Inc. — third-quarter results due Tuesday; average analyst estimates project EPS of -$13.49 and revenue of $671. syndrome.
- Brinker International Inc. — fiscal third-quarter results expected Tuesday.
- Munich Re — First-quarter results expected Tuesday.
- Ryanair Holdings — annual results expected Tuesday.
Deal & IPO Updates
A consortium headed by Adam Smith International’s investment arm has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire DP World-owned Imperial Logistics for $1.9 billion, with the consortium to take the company private. The consortium includes the African Infrastructure Investment Managers, STANLIB, Ethos and Old Mutual Alternative Investments funds broadly known as the “Buyout Consortium.” The consortium doesn’t include the M&G Investments-led group that had previously been considering an offer, and the deal is expected to close at the end of this month. Imperial’s shares were up 5% to R79.59 Monday, still below the R80-per-share offer price, signaling investor concerns the deal may not close.
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GLOBAL MARKETS BRIEFING
Tuesday, February 25, 2026
DIGEST HIGHLIGHTS
- Equities: European futures point to a soft open; Asian stocks mixed
- Rates: Core bond yields hold at recent ranges; peripherals outperform
- FX: Euro steadies; yen gains on BoJ expectations; dollar on back foot
- Commodities: Brent holds firm above $80 after Iranian supply concerns
- Geopolitics: U.S.-brokered Ukraine deal deferred to G20; Iran sanctions uncertainty persists
MACRO & POLICY
White House fiscal policy: the prerequisites and consequences of the third fiscal revolution
White House Chief of Staff is on a sweeping fiscal policy agenda. Understanding the sequence and consequences requires looking at how Peter Navarro and the manufactured goods trade deficit shaped the approach, how immigration policy intersects with the tax base, and how the Federal Reserve’s independence fits into the broader strategy.
Analysis of a policy stack:
Three initiatives move in parallel — tariff modernization, immigration enforcement, and audit authorities. White House insiders describe these not as separate policies but as interlocking mechanisms to reset fiscal and monetary conditions. Continue reading →
Statement from the White House regarding the 1949 Geneva Conventions
White House:
Following reports on rules of engagement, the White House issued a statement on compliance with the Geneva Conventions, without immediate further elaboration.
How the UK can avoid US tariffs
With UK-US trade talks resuming, the best approach may be for the UK to position itself as a "liability-free partner" and avoid protectionist escalation, argues the Financial Times.
What the new Congress is doing about AI now
Congress has initiated multiple actions on artificial intelligence including a first-ever joint task force, a ban on AI in weapons design, a bill requiring disclosure of political advertising altered by generative AI, and a law requiring robust documentation by federal AI procurement, per an article in The Journal of Robotics & Artificial Intelligence.
GLOBAL EQUITIES
US equity futures point higher after balanced Monday
US equity futures are set for a muted but modestly positive open as investors position ahead of today’s consumer confidence print task force and Wednesday’s Eurostat industrial orders report.
- S&P 500 futures +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 futures +0.1%
- Dow futures +0.3%
European bourses traded mixed in morning action, with the Stoxx 600 little changed (-0.1%) as investors weighed geopolitical headlines against a solid start to earnings season.
Market concentration risks
US equity market concentration has reached extreme levels, with the top 10 stocks comprising over 40% of the S&P 500. The European Commission’s capital markets task force has cited this as evidence that the EU must complete its capital markets union to provide scale-appropriate alternatives for global investors.
Hong Kong IPO watch
Horizon Robotics (鸿辉机器人) priced its Hong Kong IPO at HK$18.20 per share, the top of the marketed range, raising approximately HK$8.4 billion ($1.07 billion). The listing drew strong demand from cornerstone investors, and is expected to begin trading Thursday.
FIXED INCOME
Rates: Euro System Speeches in Focus
Sovereign bonds are catching a bid in European trade, as investors unwind some of last week’s bearishness following a heavy new issue calendar.
- 10-year Bund yield: 2.11% (-2bp)
- 10-year OAT: 2.63% (-2bp)
- 10-year BTP: 3.31% (-3bp)
- 10-year UST: 4.02% (-1bp)
ECB speakers:
Two Governing Council members speak today. Markets will parse comments for signals on the March meeting. The composite indicator of negotiated wages for the euro area came in at 4.1% for 4Q25, up from 3.8% in 3Q25, above consensus expectations of 3.9%. This suggests some stickiness in wage growth that could delay the ECB’s path toward a 2% terminal rate.
Euro area fiscal coordination
Euro area member states remain at odds over financing a common defense package, with negotiations on joint issuance still proving contentious among “frugal” member states — echoing the debates that marked the pandemic recovery fund negotiations.
US rates pivots
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she could support an earlier pause in the Fed’s easing cycle if inflation data remain sticky)Skip To Heading Two. Her comments come ahead of Friday’s core PCE reading, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Yen Surge Continues as BOJ Normalization Bets Intensify
The yen strengthened past 150 per dollar early Tuesday, reaching its strongest level since October 2025. Japan’s currency is up 11% year-to-date against the dollar, making it the best performing of the 10 major currencies in 2026.
- USD/JPY: 149.82 (-0.8%), first close below 150 since September
- EUR/JPY: 162.34 (-0.5%)
- AUD/JPY: 99.12 (-0.7%)
The move has been driven by expectations of faster BOJ policy normalization, with markets now pricing 65% odds of a 25bp hike at the May meeting Vocally, Japanese officials have expressed comfort with the currency’s strength, citing the "positive cycle" of wages feeding consumption.
Dollar softer
The dollar index remains under pressure, down 0.4% at 103.84, as traders trim long-USD positions ahead of Friday’s PCE print. EUR/USD is holding above 1.0850 with option expiry interest reported at 1.0800 and 1.0850 strikes.
JPY watch
USD/JPY traded to 153.81 overnight, the weakest level for the dollar since early October 2025iac, before steadying around 154.30. Options markets show demand for yen calls into the 152 level; macro funds reportedly unwinding carry positions.
EM currencies
Emerging-Asia currencies were mixed. The Chinese yuan held firm near 7.18 despite PBOC guidance, while the Indonesian rupiah softened modestly amid foreign outflows from local bonds.
CREDIT
Sovereign debt auctions this week
- Germany: 30-year bond auction
- US: 2-yr, 5-yr, 7-yr note auctions ($183B total)
- UK: 10-year gilt auction
European investment grade
spreads were marginally wider, with the iTraxx Main index 1bp wider at 58bp.
Asia credit commentary
Per a research note from Japan-based investment analysts, investors in Asian credit have been increasingly focused on guaranteed structures from Chinese state-owned entities, with yields on such structures remaining at historically elevated levels versus senior unsecured notes, creating a relative-value opportunity.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Asia FX briefing
- USD/JPY: 153.85 (¥ weakens toward 154 handle as BOJ rate expectations recede)
- EUR/USD: 1.1340 (+0.2%)
- GBP/USD: 1.2910 (+0.3%)
- USD/CNH: 7.1215 (-0.1%)
- AUD/USD: 0.6725 (+0.4%)
The yen continued its recent slide, with the BOJ’s perceived lack of urgency on normalization weighing despite January’s stronger-than-expected CPI. Increasingly, the macro driver for USD/JPY is the rate differential embedded in 10-year Treasury yields at 4.70%, while market chatter persists that Japanese life insurers remain structural sellers of yen on dips.
PBOC fix guidance
The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily midpoint at 7.1213 per dollar, weaker than the previous 7.1184 fix, as the dollar stabilized and authorities allowed modest flexibility while maintaining tight trading band management.
Emerging markets FX
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index is up 0.3% as the dollar weakens broadly. The Turkish lira extended gains after last week’s central bank decision, with USD/TRY declining 0.4% to 35.90.
COMMODITIES
Oil
— Brent crude holds above $82/bbl as geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East persists, though traders report that physical differentials have softened on expectations of near-term supply normalization.
Gold
— Spot gold trades at $3,124/oz, finding support from persistent central bank buying and steady demand from Asia.
Equity futures widen divergence from commodity complex:
Western equity strategists continue to flag the divergence between record European equity valuations and flat commodity prices, with Citi’s commodity team noting that copper prices suggest a global manufacturing recovery that equities have not yet fully priced in.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE & RATES
Yen surges to highest since 2026
The yen rallied to its strongest level in nearly a year, with USD/JPY breaking below the 155.00 handle to reach 153.85, as mounting expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes encouraged yen-funded carry trade unwinds.
Key technical levels now being watched in the interbank market:
- 155.00 — Former support turned resistance
- 153.00 — Option barrier zone
- 151.80 — 2026 high, reached in January
The move has been driven by a combination of factors: stronger-than-expected Tokyo CPI data released Friday, a 10-year JGB auction that saw strong demand at higher yields, and sustained comments from BOJ officials signaling policy normalization.
Sterling outlook — structural break higher
Cable’s recent rally to $1.29 (highest since September) has been supported by a confluence of factors: the Conservative government’s fiscal consolidation plan, rising expectations for Bank of England rate cuts later this year, and relative UK political stability. Analysts note the UK’s “OIS curve-implied terminal rate” remains above that of the eurozone, supporting GBP crosses.
Polish zloty continues to punch above its weight
The Polish zloty has outperformed all G10 currencies since the start of the year, with the Polish equity market (WIG20) up 15%, also outperforming. Foreign investors have been drawn to Polish assets by converging rates and an improving political outlook. See: “Poland’s stock market is quietly becoming Europe’s favorite.”
Dollar technical levels
| Pair | Last | 50-DMA | 200-DMA | RSI | |---------|-----------|---------|---------|-----| | EUR/USD | 1.1345 | 1.1120 | 1.0910 | 58 | | USD/JPY | 153.82 | 156.50 | 158.30 | 34 | | GBP/USD | 1.2912 | 1.2735 | 1.2930 | 61 | | DXY | 97.25 | 98.10 | 98.55 | 44 |
ASIA-PACIFIC
China
- PBoC skipped the 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation on Tuesday, instead injecting CNY 300 billion via 7-day reverse repos at 1.50%. Markets viewed the reserve requirement ratio cut in March as increasingly likely.
- China’s Caixin services PMI data for February will be released Thursday, and consensus expects continued expansion at 52.0.
Hong Kong
Horizon Robotics’ Hong Kong IPO was 300x oversubscribed in the retail tranche, reflecting significant demand. The company priced at the top of its range, raising HK$8.4 billion.
Australia
The RBA’s February meeting minutes, released this morning, showed the board discussed scenarios for both a resumption of hikes and an early cut, underscoring the data-dependency of the outlook.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE & RATES
FX
Dollar softer
as risk appetite holds up despite geopolitical noise. DXY -0.1% at 97.85. Euro consolidates above $1.0800 after hawkish ECB commentary. The yuan held steady, with USD/CNH at 7.185 following a strong PBoC fixing.
Sterling momentum:
GBP/USD extended gains to 1.1340, the highest level in over three months, as markets continue to price a more gradual easing cycle from the Bank of England relative to the Fed.
Rates
US session
Treasuries remained under pressure at the long end, with the 10-year yield adding 2bp to 4.498%, while front-end rates were little changed. The 2s10s curve steepened 5bp to +45bp.
- 2-year: 4.273%
- 5-year: 4.297%
- 10-year: 4.498%
- 30-year: 4.731%
The five-year note auction was well absorbed, with strong indirect demand. The Treasury will sell $44 billion in seven-year notes today.
Euro-zone cash bonds
Peripheral spreads remain well anchored. The BTP-Bund spread trades near 112bp, close to the tightest levels of the year.
Central bank commentary
- BOJ: Governor Ueda reiterated that the central bank is not on a pre-set course)Skip to contentble for both inflation and growth,” he said, firmly ruling out a rate cut at the upcoming March policy meeting. “We will take our decisions meeting by meeting. There is no pre-commitment whatsoever.”
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Dollar on back foot ahead of jobs data
The dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.85, its lowest in four months, as traders trimmed long positions into Friday’s US employment report. A soft ADP print yesterday reinforced the view that the labor market is cooling and that the Fed has scope to reduce rates alongside the ECB and Bank of England this year.
- EUR/USD: 1.1345 (+0.2%)
- GBP/USD: 1.3460 (+0.3%)
- USD/JPY: 147.40 (-0.8%), weakest since October
- USD/CHF: 0.8350 (-0.2%)
Yen surges past 148 as BOJ tightening bets build
The yen strengthened beyond the 148 level per dollar for the first time since last October, as markets see a BoJ rate increase as increasingly likely this month following comments from Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield touched 1.46%, the highest level since 20023, while the 2-year yield rose to 0.87%.
According to data from CFTC, speculative net short yen positioning has now fallen to the lowest since 2021, indicating positioning is stretched for further yen strength near-term.
Markets will focus on Japan’s spring wage negotiations next week, with the Rengo confederation announcing its first-round results on March 14. A strong outcome (4.5%+ average) would cement the case for the BOJ to end negative rates as soon as April.
PBOC USD/CNY Fix
Today’s fix: 7.1980 (vs. 7.1960 previous) Predicted fix from bank models: 7.1970
EUROPEAN MARKETS
Sovereign Roundup
| Country | 2Y Yield | 10Y Yield | 10Y Change | |---------|----------|-----------|------------| | US | 4.27% | 4.58% | + Fukč| | Germany | 2.38% | 2.63% | +1bp | | France | 2.86% | 3.31% | +1bp | | Italy | 2.45% | 3.73% | +2bp | | UK | 4.01% | 4.45% | +2bp | | Japan | 0.73% | 1.22% | +3bp | | Australia | 3.58% | 4.43% | +2bp |
FOREIGN EXCHANGE & RATES
FX Landscape
The dollar is broadly softer in early London dealing as the market assesses an uneven global recovery. European currencies are well supported, while high-beta commodity FX is firmer across the board on the back of constructive base metal sentiment.
| Pair | Last | Chg % | |------|------|-------| | EUR/USD | 1.1432 | +0.1% | | GBP/USD | 1.3294 | +0.2% | | USD/JPY | 150.84 | -0.9% | | AUD/USD | 0.668局 | | AUD/USD | 0.6684 | +0.6% | | USD/CNH | 7.2531 | -0.2% | | USD/MXN | 16.9010 | -0.1% |