Russia shipped the most crude in a month-and-a-half in the four weeks through Sept. 27, with flows reaching 3.71 million barrels a day, while prices for Urals and ESPO grades hit three-month highs. The value of exports rose to $2.39 billion weekly, the highest since May, driven by Middle East tensions and pipeline repairs. However, the Kremlin’s ban on diesel exports—averaging 1 million barrels daily before Ukrainian drone strikes—undermines gains.

Refined product shipments are forecast to drop by 500,000 barrels a day, while crude exports are boosted by refinery disruptions. Weekly crude loads reached 27.9 million barrels on 37 tankers, up from 24.99 million the prior week. Loading resumed at Novorossiysk, though delays persist.

Russia diverted Kazakh crude via the Black Sea, freeing capacity at Ust-Luga. Transfers of Arctic and Sokol crude near Singapore and Russian ports increased shipping time. China and India remain top buyers, though final destinations are often unclear until voyages conclude.