The 2026 Stanley Cup Final opens Tuesday night when the Carolina Hurricanes host the Vegas Golden Knights at Lenovo Center in Raleigh. Carolina secured the Eastern Conference's top seed and enters with just one loss across three playoff rounds, while Vegas swept Colorado in the Western Conference Finals. Both franchises chase their second championship after previous Final appearances.

SportsLine's Projection Model, which simulates games 10,000 times, favors the Over on total goals at 5.5. The model shows the Over has cashed in 60.9% of Hurricanes' home games and 56.7% of Knights' games when Carter Hart starts. It projects 6.4 combined goals with the Over hitting on 59.4% of simulations. The Hurricanes sit as -155 favorites while Vegas is +128 on the money line.

Carolina's Sebastian Aho and Shayne Gostisbehere are projected to generate more points than Vegas' quartet of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Mitch Marner and Pavel Dorofeyev. The model's track record includes a +568 return on top-rated NHL money-line picks this season. Game 1 drops at 8 PM ET with both teams having proven they can win the Cup.

Simulation data suggests backing the Over offers better value than the money-line wager, though SportsLine's specific picks require visiting their platform. The statistical edge favors Carolina's depth against a Vegas team that peaked at the right time.