The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens battle in Game 3 of their second-round Stanley Cup playoff series on Sunday with the matchup deadlocked at one win apiece. Buffalo claimed Game 1 before Montreal responded with a 5-1 victory in Game 2. The Canadiens have alternated wins and losses throughout their nine-game playoff run, while teams holding a 2-1 series lead go on to win 68.9% of the time. Puck drops at 7 p.m. ET from Bell Centre.

Montreal enters as the -125 money line favorite (risk $125 to win $100), with the over/under set at 5.5 goals. The teams split their four regular-season meetings, including their two games in Canada. The Sabres are +105 underdogs on the money line, while Buffalo +1.5 on the puck line comes at -239.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which has generated a +668 return on top-rated money-line NHL picks this postseason, simulates this matchup 10,000 times. The model projects the Over (5.5) as the strongest play, seeing value 57% of the time. Each of the first two playoff games between these teams produced six goals, while each of their last 10 meetings across regular season and playoffs have hit at least six combined goals, averaging 7.0 total.