The Vegas Golden Knights head to Raleigh for Game 2 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final after erasing a 2‑0 first‑period hole to win Game 1 5‑4. Tomas Hertl’s go‑ahead goal with 3:24 left capped the comeback and gave the Knights a 1‑0 series edge. Carolina, 65‑31, seeks to even the series at home, with the puck drop set for 8 p.m. ET at the Lenovo Center.

SportsLine’s Projection Model ran 10,000 simulations of the matchup, returning a +568 profit on top‑rated money‑line picks this season. The model lists Carolina as a -166 favorite and Vegas at +139, while the over/under sits at 5.5 goals. Historical data shows the over hit in 60.9% of Hurricanes’ home games and 56.7% of Vegas contests with Carter Hart in net.

Betting advice points to the over as the value play, given the 56.9% hit rate across simulations and the nine‑goal explosion in Game 1. The model also projects 0.5 points each from Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Mitch Marner, matching output from Shayne Gostisbehere and Sebastian Aho. With the spread at Hurricanes -1.5 (+157), sportsbooks favor the home side, but the over offers the clearer edge.