The Buffalo Sabres (50-23-9) lead the Boston Bruins 2-1 in their first-round playoff series after securing a 3-1 victory in Game 3. The Atlantic Division champion Sabres visit the Bruins (45-27-10) at TD Garden on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. Boston enters as the -113 favorite despite losing three of four regular-season matchups against Buffalo.

The Bruins haven't dropped consecutive home games since December, but their defensive concerns persist. The over/under sits at 5.5 goals, down from the opening line of 6.5. Historical playoff series favors Boston with 26 wins to 22 losses against Buffalo. SportsLine's projection model, profitable this postseason, predicts 6.1 combined goals.

The model projects Tage Thompson with the highest goal total, while Bruins' David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie rank second and third. Eight players are forecasted to score over 0.3 goals, supporting the over bet. Money-line value exists on one side, according to the SportsLine model that has returned over $550 on top-rated NHL picks this season.