Paraguay produced the biggest shock of the 2026 World Cup knockout stage, defeating Germany 4-3 in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw. Morocco also advanced past the Netherlands via spot-kicks, winning 3-2. Both matches highlighted a growing tactical trend that may backfire more often than not.

Opta data reveals a stark warning for teams using late substitutes specifically for shootouts. Of the last ten players introduced after the 115th minute at World Cups or European Championships, eight who took penalties failed to score. Justin Kluivert entered in the 113th minute for the Dutch and missed, while Fabian Balbuena came on in the 122nd minute for Paraguay and also failed to convert. Germany's mixed results showed substitutes can work, but the numbers suggest otherwise.

England's experience illustrates both sides of this gamble. At Euro 2024, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Ivan Toney came on before the 115th minute and both scored against Switzerland. However, the Three Lions also suffered when Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho missed crucial penalties in the Euro 2020 final after late introductions. The evidence suggests bringing players on solely for penalties is a high-risk move that rarely pays off.