Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Hull City face each other in the Championship play‑offs, three games from a Premier League spot and a £100m payday. Millwall meets Hull over two legs, while Southampton take on Middlesbrough before a Wembley final.

Statistic history favours higher finishers: since 2004‑05, the third‑place team has promoted nine times, and the last six champions all finished third or fourth. Southampton, fourth this season, has the best home record and recent form, echoing their 2017 promotion.

Defensive solidity also matters: Middlesbrough has conceded 47, the lowest among the four, while Millwall sits second with 49. Offensively, Southampton tops the group, yet Millwall’s 64 goals are the fewest, showing that a potent attack is not a guarantee.

Considering league position, home and away records, and recent form, Southampton tick the most play‑off‑winning boxes, followed closely by Millwall. Hull’s two‑time play‑off success and Middlesbrough’s defensive record give them a shot, but the data points squarely at Southampton for promotion.