Chelsea finished 10th in the Premier League last season, mirroring their 2015-16 position under Guus Hiddink before Antonio Conte led them to the title a year later. With new manager Xabi Alonso at the helm, the Blues face a similar challenge.

In 2016-17, Conte switched to a back three after a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal, sparking a 13-game winning run that yielded 93 points – a 43-point improvement, the largest in Premier League title history. Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen achieved a comparable 40-point jump to win the 2023-24 Bundesliga unbeaten playing three at the back.

Despite their lowly finish, Chelsea were the fourth-most dominant side by expected goals (xG) last season, but scored eight fewer goals than their 66.3 xG warranted. A catastrophic five-game goalless losing streak in March-April under Liam Rosenior skewed the numbers.

The absence of European football historically benefits "Big Six" clubs, with sides averaging 16 more points and five places higher. Combined with Alonso's proven turnaround ability, a title challenge isn't impossible.