With the Ballon d'Or shortlist to be announced on Tuesday, Harry Kane heads the field as the bookmakers' favourite after a prolific season for club and country. History, however, suggests football's biggest individual prize is rarely decided on goals alone. Since the Ballon d'Or was first awarded in 1956, performances in the game's biggest competitions have consistently shaped the outcome. World Cup years, in particular, have followed a remarkably clear pattern and recent editions have shown just how difficult it is to win the award without lifting a major global or continental tournament.

Created by France Football journalist Gabriel Hanot, the Ballon d'Or was first presented in 1956, with England's Sir Stanley Matthews the inaugural winner. Raymond Kopa became the first Ballon d'Or winner in a World Cup year after helping France reach the 1958 semi-finals. Bobby Charlton (1966), Paolo Rossi (1982), Lothar Matthaus (1990), Zinedine Zidane (1998), Ronaldo (2002) and Fabio Cannavaro (2006) all won the Ballon d'Or after lifting the World Cup. Even among the official exceptions, players still tended to enjoy deep runs at the tournament. Johan Cruyff collected the Ballon d'Or after leading the Netherlands to the 1974 World Cup final, while Luka Modric repeated the feat with Croatia in 2018.

The World Cup is not the only competition to shape Ballon d'Or voting. Recent history suggests success in one of football's biggest tournaments has become almost a prerequisite. Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to lift either the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America during the year of their triumph. Those exceptions underline just how extraordinary Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo had to be. Messi won despite Argentina's quarter-final exit at the 2010 World Cup, and again in 2012 and 2019 without lifting a major international or continental trophy. Kane, who has never finished higher than 10th in the battle to be the world's best player, faces a steep historical climb to become one of the rare exceptions.