The 2026 World Cup’s 48-team format has already exposed a flaw: group‑stage matches lack genuine elimination risk. South Korea’s 1‑0 loss to South Africa still leaves them likely to advance as one of the eight best third‑placed teams, a scenario that would have sent them home under the 2022 two‑qualifier rule. It underscores why the new system feels lenient overall.

Two upcoming fixtures illustrate the dilemma. Australia-Paraguay in Group D and Austria versus Algeria in Group J both sit on three points, with four points almost guaranteeing a third‑place slot. Knowing the required total before kickoff lets teams contemplate a safe draw, mirroring past Euro scenarios where squads prioritized progression over attacking play. Such calculations risk reducing the tournament’s excitement.

The format’s reliance on eight third‑placed qualifiers makes it easier to survive than to be eliminated, prompting speculation that teams may even aim for a loss to secure a more favorable knockout path. With match timings staggered, later groups can tailor results, raising integrity questions that could pressure FIFA to revisit the 48‑team experiment before the tournament concludes in 2026.