Public Markets 8 Hours

Last updated: March 24, 2026, 1:30 PM ET

Energy Markets & Geopolitical Fallout

Global energy markets remain highly sensitive to the ongoing conflict, with reports indicating that Iran has begun charging transit fees for commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing Tehran's leverage over global maritime energy flows. This instability has driven up crude prices, leading Shell’s CEO to warn that Europe faces a fuel supply squeeze similar to that recently experienced in Asia due to the fighting in the Middle East. In response to price surges, United Airlines may impose a 20% fare hike if elevated jet fuel costs persist, while on the production side, ConocoPhillips anticipates the crude market flipping into contango, where deferred delivery commands higher prices. Meanwhile, Russia is capitalizing on the situation, with its oil revenues hitting a four-year high due to elevated prices and steady export flows, contrasting sharply with the agricultural sector, where Russia has temporarily suspended ammonium nitrate exports, tightening global fertilizer supply already strained by the war.

Sovereign and Corporate Finance Under Pressure

Geopolitical instability is directly impacting sovereign debt issuance and corporate balance sheets across emerging markets and Europe. Angola plans to capitalize on high crude prices, driven by the Iran war, by raising approximately $2 billion via a eurobond sale, while simultaneously seeking to repurchase $1.75 billion of its existing 8.25% notes due 2028. In Turkey, the central bank has already spent $30 billion supporting the lira as foreign investors divest assets, raising the prospect that Ankara may resort to selling gold reserves from its $135 billion stockpile to defend the currency. In Europe, the fallout is visible in infrastructure, with UK housebuilder Bellway shares slumping after its CEO characterized margin growth hopes as overly optimistic given the Middle East conflict's impact. Furthermore, the European Union is pushing to secure a political agreement by mid-June on the controversial Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) bank capital rules.

Asset Management and Credit Markets

Alternative asset managers are grappling with intensifying redemption pressures, as evidenced by Ares Management limiting withdrawals from its $10.7 billion private credit fund amid a broader industry exodus accelerating among wealthy individuals. This sector faces further regulatory headwinds, as the European Central Bank begins fresh checks on supervised banks' exposure to private credit quality, mirroring scrutiny faced by rating agencies; the SEC is questioning Egan-Jones over its ratings on thousands of private loans relied upon by insurers. In dealmaking, the bidding war for Janus Henderson has escalated, with Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst raising their all-cash offer to $52 per share to counter a surprise bid from Victory Capital. Separately, a newly public closed-end fund has soared over 1,200% above its NAV, driven by investor demand for stakes in pre-IPO technology firms like SpaceX and Anthropic PBC.

Technology Sector Moves and Infrastructure

The technology sector is seeing shifts in investment focus and competition, as a report detailing Amazon’s development of new AI tools triggered a selloff in established software stocks due to renewed disruption fears. Concurrently, the focus on memory chips persists, as Xiaomi reported slower sales growth and a profit slump, caught between surging memory costs and softening consumer demand. In infrastructure, the push for digitalization continues; Bank of Montreal plans to launch tokenized cash for institutional clients, allowing secure, real-time fund transfers, an effort mirrored by the NYSE partnering with Securitize to build a 24/7 tokenized securities platform. Furthermore, Canada is actively seeking to increase natural gas flows to the US to bolster Gulf Coast LNG exports, partly to meet soaring power demand from AI data centers.

Political and Regulatory Developments

In U.S. politics, the focus remains on potential spending and regulatory actions amidst rising national debt concerns, with Treasury Secretary Bessent’s deficit reduction goals undercut by recent war spending and tariff news. In credit markets, the SEC is also examining the credit rating firm Egan-Jones, which is seeking to regain its authority to grade government debt after a decade-long ban. On a geopolitical front, Israeli Defense Minister Katz suggested troops might remain in southern Lebanon after hostilities subside, while in the Caribbean, a Russian oil shipment puts focus on Moscow's spy outpost in Cuba, challenging ongoing U.S. efforts to choke the island's economy. Elsewhere, in domestic policy, the cancellation of the California Governor’s debate after criticism over its all-white candidate slate underscored ongoing diversity pressures in political organizing.