Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 24, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Geopolitical Shocks Drive Energy Volatility & Inflation
Escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate market narratives, prompting major shifts across energy and inflation expectations. Oil futures retreated wsj.com after President Donald Trump postponed threatened attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, with Brent settling under $100 a barrel following what were described as “constructive” talks with Tehran ft.com. However, underlying supply fears remain acute; Shell Plc CEO Wael Sawan warned Europe faces a fuel squeeze bloomberg.com similar to Asia’s recent disruption, while Iran has begun charging transit fees bloomberg.com for some commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This instability is directly impacting inflation, as France's national statistics agency, Insee, predicts inflation will quicken to the ECB's 2% target bloomberg.com in April, driven by surging oil prices linked to the fighting bloomberg.com. Furthermore, the conflict is showing long-term damage potential, with Gulf energy infrastructure recovery expected to take years to restore full capacity bloomberg.com, even as one Iraqi oil supertanker crossed Hormuz with its signal off bloomberg.com.
The energy shock is rapidly rippling through global economies and corporate planning. In the US, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby indicated that ticket prices may need to rise by 20% bloomberg.com if elevated jet fuel costs persist, contrasting with United's separate, longer-term plan to add over 250 planes wsj.com in the next two years to boost premium capacity. Meanwhile, the broader oil market is showing structural shifts, with ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance expecting a flip into contango bloomberg.com, where future delivery prices exceed immediate ones. On the supply side, Canada is actively pitching increased natural gas flows to the US bloomberg.com to bolster Gulf Coast LNG exports, a move potentially necessary to meet soaring power demand from artificial-intelligence data centers bloomberg.com. In contrast, the war’s impact on agricultural inputs is severe, with West Africa’s cocoa and cotton farmers expected to suffer the greatest hit from a fertilizer shock bloomberg.com.
Fixed Income & Emerging Markets Under Pressure
Global bond yields have climbed to their highest since May 2024 bloomberg.com as surging energy costs force traders to price in central bank interest-rate hikes, challenging prior expectations for easing. This sentiment has caused investors to lift odds for a Fed rate increase, though labor market fragility suggests such a move remains unlikely bloomberg.com. Pacific Investment Management Co. is actively touting opportunities to invest against the prevailing narrative bloomberg.com of global hikes. Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable; Thailand is on track for its largest foreign selloff in four years, with over $1 billion dumped from bond holdings bloomberg.com as investors exit amid Middle East tensions. Turkey is also grappling with volatility, prompting the central bank to consider tapping its $135 billion gold reserves bloomberg.com to defend the lira following a $30 billion spend to support the currency as foreign investors sell assets ft.com. Angola, however, is capitalizing on higher crude prices to plan a $2 billion eurobond sale bloomberg.com to boost investor appetite for debt, while also planning to repurchase $1.75 billion of existing notes bloomberg.com.
Corporate Dealmaking & Sectoral Shifts
Activity in mergers and acquisitions remains intense despite geopolitical headwinds. The bidding war for Janus Henderson Group Plc has escalated, with Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst raising their all-cash offer to $52 a share bloomberg.com to counter a surprise bid from Victory Capital Holdings ft.com. In infrastructure and energy, analysts suggest that renewable firm Boralex Inc. could fetch bids exceeding C$39 per share bloomberg.com in a takeover, leading the company to explore going private bloomberg.com. On the private credit front, signs of stress are emerging, with shares of alternative asset managers like Ares Management Corp. and Apollo Global Management falling after they curbed withdrawals from certain funds bloomberg.com. Ares specifically limited redemptions at its $10.7 billion private credit fund bloomberg.com amid a broader surge in redemption requests ft.com. In digital finance, the Bank of Montreal plans to launch tokenized cash wsj.com capabilities for institutional clients, partnering with CME to allow secure, 24/7 fund movement bloomberg.com, while the NYSE is separately moving to develop a 24/7 tokenized securities platform wsj.com.
Technology, Media, and Regulatory Focus
The technology sector saw software stocks drop sharply bloomberg.com following reports that Amazon.com Inc. is developing new AI tools, reigniting fears about disruption across the sector. In contrast, investors seeking certainty have favored memory and storage plays, making memory Wall Street’s favorite tech trade bloomberg.com amid volatility in the mega-cap technology cohort. Elsewhere, a newly-listed closed-end fund tracking private companies like SpaceX and Anthropic has soared 1,200% bloomberg.com above its net asset value, illustrating high demand for pre-IPO exposure. Regulatory scrutiny continues, with the SEC questioning Egan-Jones Rating Co. over its historic ratings on private loans that underpin the private credit boom ft.com, following scrutiny over its bids to regain the ability to grade government debt bloomberg.com. On the media front, the UK’s financial watchdog is expected to unveil a scheme to compensate millions over allegedly mis-sold car loans, potentially costing the industry $11 billion ft.com, while UK legislation will now mandate that companies pay supplier invoices within 60 days or face fines ft.com.
Political & Social Crosscurrents
Political maneuvering and social issues intersected with market sentiment in several notable ways. On the commodity front, President Trump’s delayed energy strikes on Iran offered a brief reprieve, causing the Nifty 50 to slide to its lowest since early April bloomberg.com before rebounding as geopolitical risks momentarily eased bloomberg.com. Elsewhere on the geopolitical stage, Russian oil shipments are drawing attention to a Kremlin spy outpost in Cuba, potentially challenging US efforts to choke the island's economy nytimes.com. In domestic politics, the cancellation of the California Governor’s debate drew criticism after the six candidates selected were all white nytimes.com, while Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie’s willingness to buck President Trump nytimes.com has made his primary contest the most expensive in the country. In corporate leadership transitions, Dollar General has tapped Ahold Delhaize veteran Jerry “JJ” Fleeman Jr. to succeed Todd Vasos as CEO wsj.com in 2027, while the late David Simon, chairman of Simon Property Group, died at 64 from cancer bloomberg.com.