Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 24, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Market Fallout
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has driven synchronized global shocks to both growth momentum and prices, leading to widespread market volatility over the past three days bloomberg.com. Crude oil prices spiked following threats wsj.com of strikes against Iranian infrastructure, though they briefly retreated after President Donald Trump postponed energy strikes bloomberg.com, which briefly caused Treasuries to halt a surge in yields bloomberg.com. The war has severely impacted maritime energy flows; global LNG exports fell to a six-month low bloomberg.com due to throttling in the Middle East, while shipping fees to move Saudi crude from Yanbu plummeted as tankers diverted from the Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com. In response to persistent high jet fuel costs, United Airlines warned bloomberg.com ticket prices might need a 20% increase if the surge continues, even as the carrier simultaneously plans to add over 250 planes wsj.com to boost premium capacity. Conoco Phillips’ CEO, Ryan Lance, anticipates the crude market will soon flip into contango bloomberg.com, a market structure where later-dated contracts are more expensive.
The energy shock is reverberating across various sectors, with Russia’s oil revenues surging to a four-year high bloomberg.com due to higher prices and sustained flows despite sanctions bloomberg.com. Conversely, the conflict is causing significant economic strain elsewhere; West African cocoa and cotton farmers are expected to suffer the greatest hit bloomberg.com from resulting fertilizer shortages, exacerbated by Russia’s temporary suspension of ammonium nitrate exports bloomberg.com. In South Africa, the FNB CEO warned that rising fuel and food prices stemming from the war could derail the nation’s fragile recovery bloomberg.com. Meanwhile, Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos saw its debt burden ease slightly as investors bet that supply disruptions caused by the Iran war would benefit the company’s earnings, offsetting pressure on its €15.5 billion debt load bloomberg.com.
Fixed Income and Regulatory Scrutiny
Global bond markets have experienced significant turbulence, with over $2.5 trillion wiped out bloomberg.com in March due to stagflation fears linked to the conflict, marking the largest monthly loss in over three years bloomberg.com. The volatility was particularly pronounced in UK bonds, which are highly sensitive to inflation jitters bloomberg.com. In the U.S., municipal borrowers are structuring debt sales with a noticeable shift toward shorter debt maturities bloomberg.com to attract buyers amid the uncertainty. Furthermore, the SEC questioned Egan-Jones Rating Co. bloomberg.com regarding its bid to regain the authority to rate government debt and asset-backed securities, a role it lost over a decade ago, as the agency is already under scrutiny for its ratings on private loans that fueled the credit boom ft.com. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is commencing fresh checks on supervised banks’ exposure to private credit, following concerns over loan quality bloomberg.com.
In corporate debt markets, Angola is moving ahead with plans to raise about $2 billion bloomberg.com from a eurobond sale, leveraging higher crude prices driven by the war to enhance investor appetite, while simultaneously planning to buy back $1.75 billion bloomberg.com of existing 2028 notes. In the US high-yield space, investors are becoming more assertive against borrower maneuvers, refusing to be “J. Crewed,” which is shorthand for aggressive asset stripping by borrowers bloomberg.com. On the regulatory front, European Union officials are pushing to finalize a political agreement on the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book bank capital rules by mid-June bloomberg.com.
Corporate Activity and Asset Management Shifts
The asset management sector saw escalating competition for Janus Henderson Group Plc, as the joint bid from Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst wsj.com was increased to $52 per share in cash, intensifying the contest against Victory Capital’s rival swoop ft.com. In private markets, alternative asset managers faced investor pressure, with both Ares Management and Apollo Global Management bloomberg.com curbing redemptions from some of their funds following a surge in withdrawal requests. Ares specifically limited withdrawals from its $10.7 billion private credit fund bloomberg.com. Private capital firms are also reorienting strategies, moving away from software investments toward hard assets like infrastructure, as the AI boom forces a rethink of industry priorities bloomberg.com. Meanwhile, China’s $1.57 trillion sovereign wealth fund is reportedly considering new allocations to US money managers bloomberg.com after having reduced commitments earlier in the year.
In the transportation sector, despite rising fuel costs, IPL team Royal Challengers Bengaluru bloomberg.com is set for a major transaction, being acquired by a consortium including Blackstone and Aditya Birla Group in a deal valued near $1.8 billion. Furthermore, Boralex Inc. shares jumped on takeover speculation bloomberg.com, with analysts suggesting a bid north of C$39 per share, representing a premium exceeding 30%. In M&A news from the beauty sector, Puig’s stock surged on merger confirmation wsj.com talks with Estee Lauder, while Danone announced its plan to acquire Huel for €1 billion ft.com to expand its complete nutrition offerings.
Technology, Finance Infrastructure, and Market Sentiment
Investor excitement over pre-IPO stakes in high-profile technology companies drove a newly-listed closed-end fund up over 1,200% above its asset value bloomberg.com, fueled by demand for exposure to firms like SpaceX and Anthropic PBC bloomberg.com. This enthusiasm for space technology continues, as Fidelity sees a path bloomberg.com for Elon Musk’s vision of space-based data centers utilizing SpaceX capabilities. In the financial infrastructure space, the NYSE partnered with Securitize wsj.com to explore a 24/7 platform for trading tokenized stocks, mirroring initiatives by Bank of Montreal wsj.com, which plans to launch tokenized cash capabilities for institutional clients in partnership with CME bloomberg.com.
Market sentiment remains guarded despite a brief Monday rally; the VIX index signals bloomberg.com that traders require further confirmation that it is safe to buy dips in the S&P 500 index. Investors are grappling with conflicting signals, as some are betting on a Fed rate hike despite labor market fragility and oil risks bloomberg.com, a view Pacific Investment Management Co. is actively betting against bloomberg.com. In commodities trading, the focus on tech extends to fundamental materials, where Russia’s Nornickel is using AI in a $100 million push bloomberg.com to find new uses for palladium as EV adoption erodes traditional demand drivers bloomberg.com.
Political and Regulatory Developments
Political maneuvering continues to influence markets and policy. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated intentions nytimes.com to maintain troop presence in parts of Southern Lebanon even post-conflict, raising regional tensions. In the US, Republican Congressman Thomas Massie is centering his campaign on his willingness to defy the President, leading to the most expensive primary in the country nytimes.com. Meanwhile, the US government is attempting to manage the fallout from past stimulus, as repayment proves difficult for businesses that received $378 billion in SBA loans nytimes.com.
On the infrastructure and logistics front, UK housebuilder Bellway’s shares slumped after CEO warnings ft.com that margin growth targets look overly optimistic given the Middle East conflict. In the US logistics sector, FedEx is launching a ‘Same Day Local’ service by teaming up with One Rail to compete with Amazon’s speedier delivery options wsj.com. In other regulatory matters, the National Collegiate Athletic Association pushed to shut down betting bloomberg.com on college sports on prediction markets like Kalshi, despite the latter achieving a new trading record in March bloomberg.com.