Markets 3h

Public Markets

Energy & Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia ramped up production by 8% last month ahead of Middle East conflict, according to OPEC data, while Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi pledged to release oil reserves first to mitigate supply shocks given the nation's "exceptionally high" Middle East energy reliance. The IEA is considering the largest-ever emergency release of oil reserves as crude topped $90/barrel amid Strait of Hormuz vessel attacks, with Germany also planning strategic releases to address Middle East supply disruptions.

Inflation & Monetary Policy

US inflation held steady at 2.4% in February as Middle East war pushed energy prices higher, while the February CPI report showed core inflation moderating slightly below expectations. The Bank of England fined Direct Line £10 million for overstating capital for nearly a year, highlighting regulatory scrutiny as UK two-year mortgage rates climbed back above 5% with nearly 500 deals withdrawn in two days amid rate uncertainty.

Corporate Markets

Oracle's credit risk improved to one-month lows after strong results eased AI-related spending fears, while Salesforce launched an $8-part bond offering to fund share buybacks, testing software-sector debt appetite. Campbell's cut its fiscal outlook as snack sales declined in Q2, contrasting with Nvidia's $2 billion deal with AI cloud provider Nebius as the chip giant continues deploying cash reserves into customer funding.

Equity Positioning

Goldman Sachs' trading desk sees potential for an extreme stock rally as hedge fund positioning across US equities creates a setup for gains after recent volatility. Investors are seeking shelter in US tech as megacap companies once out of favor now viewed as "safety assets" amid Iran war uncertainty, while Asian stocks fell harder than profits reflecting fears of sustained supply disruption and prolonged crude price surges.

Market Infrastructure

UK gilt volatility following Middle East conflict has created a buying opportunity for investors willing to brave the swings, according to traders. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries reset its relationship with Donald Trump through an oil refinery pledge, marking a strategic pivot from previous tensions as the conglomerate navigates shifting geopolitical alliances.

Regulatory & Legal

The London Metropolitan Police called for new laws unless tech groups like Apple do more to combat phone theft, demanding concrete commitments by June. In private markets, shareholders are challenging private equity pay schemes that reward founders through contentious financial engineering, while CVC Capital Partners' shares slipped despite 67% realization growth as performance-related earnings guidance disappointed investors.

Private Equity

Major PE Exits and Secondary Sales

Private equity firms cashed in on record exits in 2025, with EQT leading a $5.5 billion Galderma share sale that marks the largest Swiss secondary exit on record. The transaction saw EQT and co-investors completely exit their remaining stake in the dermatology company through a block trade to institutional investors. Meanwhile, CVC reported €21.9 billion in exits for fiscal 2025, representing a 77% increase from the prior year and signaling robust exit activity across the sector.

Strategic Investments and Platform Deals

Blackstone expanded its industrial portfolio through a majority stake acquisition in Advanced Cooling Technologies, while also joining Blue Owl in a minority investment in Atlas Holdings, the diversified industrial conglomerate operating 30 manufacturing and distribution businesses. In a separate move, Blackstone arranged a $1.2 billion credit facility for Air Trunk's expansion into Japanese data centers, highlighting private equity's growing appetite for AI infrastructure assets across Asia-Pacific markets.

UK Fintech Regulatory Milestone

Revolut secured its long-awaited UK banking licence after a five-year regulatory process, clearing a major hurdle for the fintech's expansion plans. The approval from the UK's Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority comes as the digital banking platform seeks to deepen its presence in European financial services markets and potentially pursue an IPO Mid-Market Resilience and Exit Strategies

The U.S. mid-market private equity segment showed signs of resilience despite broader economic uncertainty, with dealmakers reporting sustained interest in quality assets. This contrasts with growing GP concerns about PE outperformance, as highlighted in recent industry surveys. Additionally, Brookfield entered exclusive talks for a $1.3 billion acquisition of World Freight Company, the logistics platform backed by EQT and PAI Partners, signaling continued consolidation in the transportation and logistics sector.

Venture Capital Strategy Shift

Venture capital investors are recalibrating their approach to artificial intelligence startups, prioritizing companies that demonstrate measurable production usage and revenue over those with impressive but unproven technology demonstrations. This strategic pivot toward "agentic AI" reflects a broader industry trend of demanding tangible business outcomes rather than speculative valuations, particularly in the wake of high-profile AI investment cycles.

Sector Investment

Private Equity & Real Estate

The PERE Credit conference will merge with Real Estate Capital Europe in June, creating a unified platform for global real estate private credit coverage. This consolidation reflects growing investor appetite for private credit strategies as traditional fixed-income yields remain compressed. The combined event will feature expanded programming on infrastructure debt, mezzanine financing, and cross-border lending opportunities across European and North American markets.