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Last updated: May 6, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Probabilistic Modeling & Forecasting

New work explores calibrated uncertainty in political modeling, presenting a case study on English local elections that demonstrates how some models gain utility precisely when they refuse to issue definitive forecasts, suggesting that acknowledging large error bounds is sometimes more informative than overly precise, yet inaccurate, predictions When the Uncertainty Is Bigger Than the Shock: Sc.