Climate change is increasingly driving itself forward through feedback loops that scientists say are missing from most climate models. A study in Environmental Research Letters found that added carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost, intensifying wildfires, hotter lakes, and warmer wetlands could raise global temperatures by 0.2°C to 0.4°C this century. That would come on top of the 2.6°C of warming already expected above preindustrial levels by 2100.
The additional heat could subject cities to monthslong heat waves and expose hundreds of millions to flooding. Yet none of the models behind major UN climate reports account for all these effects, and many include none. A separate analysis in One Earth found that just three regional sources—thawing permafrost, boreal forest fires, and warming tropical wetlands—may shorten by as much as 25% the time before the planet breaches the 1.5°C and 2°C warming thresholds.
Sam Abernethy, lead author of the One Earth paper and a scientist at Spark Climate Solutions, says models and UN assessments need updating. Spark's intercomparison project involves more than 20 international teams, with results aimed at the UN's 2029 climate assessment. Researchers at Woodwell Climate Research Center and the Environmental Defense Fund are also exploring ways to control feedback emissions.
Source: MIT Technology Review · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing