A senior engineer recently turned down an Engineering Manager promotion after a revealing conversation about career tradeoffs. The friend, offered a team lead role managing six engineers, questioned whether management still offers the career advantages it once did. After years of advising engineers to try management for valuable experience, the author now recommends waiting.

Several factors make management less attractive today. Companies have been flattening hierarchies, with Amazon increasing its IC-to-manager ratio by 15% and others following suit. This means fewer Director and VP roles to grow into, creating a bottleneck where great EMs can get stuck for years. Additionally, the total compensation offered was actually 20-30% less than what Staff Engineer positions at other startups were paying.

Internal promotion opportunities have also shrunk. EMs typically need to manage more engineers to advance, but expanding teams isn't always possible. Meanwhile, Staff engineers remain in high demand and command premium salaries across the industry. The author notes that while experienced, hands-on managers still bring valuable skills in the age of AI coding tools, the rational career choice for senior engineers appears to be staying on the IC track—at least for the next few years while the market stabilizes.