Goldman Sachs warns that Britain’s jet fuel stocks could hit critically low levels within weeks, putting airlines, freight firms and SMEs at risk of formal rationing. The UK tops European exposure because of thin reserves, heavy import reliance, and a weakened domestic refining base.

The Strait of Hormuz closure has doubled fuel prices since February, forcing carriers to slash seats and hike fares. IAG will pass costs onto passengers, while Air France and American Airlines face $2.4 B and $4 B fuel bill increases, respectively. Small exporters and tour operators will feel the pinch as shipment delays mount.

Britain’s shrinking refinery capacity—Grangemouth’s 2025 shutdown and uncertainty at Prax Lindsey—exposes a structural fragility that the government cannot mask. With the EU rolling out jet‑fuel guidance, UK firms must brace for higher costs and potential rationing until the strait reopens, a scenario that could hit the summer tourism and export markets.