Airlines including Lufthansa, Delta, Cathay Pacific and Qantas have begun cutting routes as jet‑fuel prices double, hoping to protect margins. Yet the aviation sector accounts for a modest slice of global oil use, and the refinery process ties each barrel of crude to a fixed mix of products, limiting any single‑product shock.

Refiners cannot easily favor one output over another; even with different crude feeds or plant complexity, shifts in product ratios move only a few percentage points. A 15 per cent reduction in worldwide crude supply—such as a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure—would translate into roughly the same cut across gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha.

Jet fuel now trades near $200 a barrel, about twice the price of crude, and accounts for roughly 35 per cent of revenue at low‑cost carriers like Ryanair. A 15 per cent dip in airline fuel burn would shave a comparable share off total product demand, but refiners would still find $100‑crude economics attractive and continue buying.

Only when gasoline, diesel and other fuels rise enough to push 15 per cent of their customers away will crude demand contract meaningfully. Airline schedule trims alone cannot rebalance the market; broader consumption cuts across multiple product streams are required to ease the current oil price squeeze.