West Point’s Modern War Institute analysis reveals a critical vulnerability in US defense readiness: the Strait of Hormuz blockade is crippling access to sulfur and copper, vital for military equipment repair and production. Sulfur, a key component in extracting copper and cobalt, has seen seaborne trade disrupted by nearly 90%, with prices surging 25% since the war began. This has triggered a 165% year-on-year spike in mineral costs, directly impacting the US military’s ability to replace damaged radars, sensors, and communication systems in conflict zones like Bahrain and Qatar. The report estimates 30,000 kilograms of copper alone are needed to fix two major US radars destroyed in the region, underscoring the scale of the logistical crisis.

The blockade’s ripple effects extend beyond immediate military needs. Sulphur shortages threaten global food supplies, as the mineral is essential for fertilizer production, particularly in low-income nations. More urgently, sulfur is a byproduct used to create sulfuric acid, which extracts copper and cobalt from low-grade ores. West Point warns these metals are ‘designated strategic materials’ embedded in transformers, motors, and communications hardware critical to US bases and factories. Without stable access, defense readiness faces unprecedented risks, with repair costs projected to double or triple due to supply shocks.

The analysis exposes deeper systemic flaws: only 6% of US defense contractors maintain transparent supply chains, leaving military planners blind to upstream dependencies. Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek highlighted that opaque industrial chains create a ‘prelogistical crisis’ where combat endurance is limited by invisible mineral shortages. This opacity also hampers strategic planning, as subcontractor networks remain untraceable beyond a few tiers. The report calls for urgent reforms to map supply chains and prioritize critical mineral procurement.

The crisis demands immediate action. With no existing models for sudden supply shocks, the US must address vulnerabilities in its defense industrial base. Experts stress that failure to act could leave the military unable to replace weapons or equipment at scale, jeopardizing operational effectiveness in ongoing conflicts. The blockade’s economic fallout may soon eclipse its tactical impact, reshaping US military strategy in unpredictable ways.