NPR tracked 114 items at a Walmart in Georgia, finding average prices rose 5% in 2025. Nearly half the items, from shrimp to Coca-Cola, cost more. About a quarter actually got cheaper, including eggs and milk. The investigation shows how tariffs and climate chaos are hitting American grocery bills, even as overall inflation cools.

Tariffs were a major driver, especially for goods from China and Vietnam. Items like paper folders and swai fish fillets saw steep jumps, with some prices rising over 30%. Companies including Reynolds Wrap cited trade taxes on imports like Canadian aluminum. Meanwhile, extreme weather decimated harvests, sending coffee and chocolate costs soaring due to droughts and disease.

Shoppers like Greg Reyes, who saw his meat bill jump from $40 to $60, are cutting back on luxuries like ice cream. Brands are fighting to keep customers, with Walmart offering more discounts to counter rising costs. One notable change was shrinkflation in Tide detergent, which P&G calls an efficiency upgrade, reducing bottle sizes while promising the same number of loads.