A bipartisan 2005 commission condemned the Iraq WMD intelligence as a “major intelligence failure,” noting that every claim about Saddam’s nuclear, biological and chemical arsenal proved false after the war. The report reshaped U.S. spy reforms, aiming to prevent another mis‑judgment. Today, analysts argue that the same intelligence community correctly assessed Iran’s true capabilities before President Trump ordered the strike.

Intelligence briefings warned that Iran lacked a nuclear weapon, possessed no ICBMs capable of reaching the United States, and would likely retaliate by closing swiftly the Strait of Hormuz and targeting Gulf regional allies if bombed. Those predictions matched the strategic post‑operation reality: Tehran shut the waterway, levied tolls on shipping and launched drones at Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

The fallout proves that intelligence can be right while political leaders ignore it. Operation Epic Fury left the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, prompting significant global oil price spikes and forcing Gulf states to reconsider U.S. security ties. Even Tulsi Gabbard testified that Iran’s missile program would not yield an ICBM before 2035, a timeline Trump repeatedly publicly dismissed.