D-Squared Digest author Paul Krugman's detailed analysis of the Iraq War's flawed planning offers enduring lessons for policy and business. Krugman argues that the war's justification relied heavily on misleading claims about Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), demonstrating how good ideas often require significant dishonesty to gain acceptance. He contrasts this with the accounting debate over stock options, where the tech industry's claim that expensing them would stifle innovation was undermined by the fact that companies only made them if they weren't truly valuable.

The core insight is that honest projections are critical; when forecasters are known liars, their predictions become worthless. Krugman emphasizes the vital role of audit—regularly reviewing completed projects against initial forecasts—to expose failures and prevent future disasters like Abu Ghraib, where trust was placed in those who had repeatedly proven dishonest.