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Future of 128‑bit Processors

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John R. Mashey of Silicon Graphics discusses the future of 128‑bit processors, noting that the 64‑bit era began in the early 1990s and that memory density continues to grow at about 2 bits per 3 years. He points out that a typical CPU family adds two physical‑address bits every generation, allowing a 36‑bit address space to support 16 GB of RAM, while a 40‑bit space could handle 1 TB. The article contrasts physical and virtual addressing, arguing that virtual‑memory use often exceeds physical memory by roughly 4:1, and that the rising prevalence of file‑with‑holes and large‑file mappings could accelerate pressure beyond this constant factor.

Mashey projects the 64‑to‑128‑bit transition around 2043 if the trend follows physical‑memory demand alone, but suggests that heavier virtual‑memory workloads could bring the shift nearer 2020. He cautions that die‑space, routing, and gate‑delay challenges for 128‑bit adders and shifters will slow adoption, and that an operating system capable of addressing every byte in the world could serve as a catalyst.

The discussion also references comments from Opher Kahn, Zalman Stern, and Stefan Monnier, who highlight the practical obstacles and the need for compelling use cases before the industry moves beyond 128‑bit data deficiencies.