A new study challenges the conventional wisdom that under-saving stems from procrastination and poor self-control. Researchers found that exposure to negative financial shocks, not procrastination, is the dominant predictor of saving regret among Americans aged 60-74. The study compared the United States and Singapore, two countries with similar individual responsibility for retirement but vastly different institutional designs.

Across 21 statistical comparisons, procrastination showed little to no relationship with saving regret. Where significant associations appeared, they often ran counter to behavioral economics predictions. In contrast, Americans who experienced unemployment, health expenses, or other financial shocks were significantly more likely to wish they had saved more. About 69 percent of U.S. respondents reported at least one negative shock, compared with 46 percent in Singapore. Among those who experienced shocks, 61 percent of Americans expressed saving regret versus 42 percent of Singaporeans.

The research suggests that the cross-national gap in saving regret is almost entirely a gap in shock exposure and consequences. In the U.S., the same job loss or health crisis does more lasting damage to household finances. This finding shifts the policy conversation away from behavioral nudges toward structural protections against economic shocks.