New polling reveals a dramatic shift in Arab public opinion away from the United States and toward China, Iran, and Russia. Surveys conducted across eight Middle Eastern countries show that Washington's reputation has plummeted since the Gaza conflict began in October 2023, with approval ratings for President Trump's foreign policies ranging from just 12 to 24 percent in most surveyed nations.

By contrast, China's favorability ranges from 37 percent in Syria to 69 percent in Tunisia, while Russia outperforms the US in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian territories, and Tunisia. The war with Iran has further damaged US standing, as the conflict was perceived as being started by the United States and Israel. Public opinion has shifted not because China, Iran, or Russia have built universally attractive models, but because US and European standing has collapsed.

Most strikingly, support for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's foreign policy has surged from overwhelmingly negative to mixed in many countries. His approval rating increased by double digits in Tunisia, Iraq, and Palestinian territories over the past five years. Arab leaders, though authoritarian, remain constrained by public opinion and the risk of mass protests. If Washington wants to retain its Arab partners, it must find a quick end to the war in Iran and work toward a just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or risk permanently ceding the Arab world to its adversaries.