Despite claims that AI coding tools make developers 2x to 100x more productive, a thorough examination of PyPI data shows no dramatic increase in software production following ChatGPT's release. Package creation continues its previous trajectory with no visible inflection point.

Analysis of update frequencies reveals packages born after ChatGPT do show higher initial release rates (13/year vs 6/year for 2014 packages), yet this trend began in 2019, predating mainstream AI coding tools. The increase appears tied to CI adoption, not AI productivity.

The real AI effect concentrates in AI-specific packages, which show dramatically higher update frequencies. Popular AI packages jumped to 21-26 median releases per year post-ChatGPT, more than double their non-AI counterparts.

This pattern suggests AI tools aren't broadly boosting developer productivity. Instead, the surge in popular AI package updates likely reflects increased funding and hype for AI projects rather than fundamental productivity gains across the development community.