A detailed 2026 forecast for Bristol Bay and Kodiak salmon runs pulls daily passage data from five major rivers and uses lifecycle analogs instead of linear trends to estimate timing and magnitude. The analysis separates timing confidence from magnitude confidence, producing concrete expectations for when each species' run will start, peak, and taper off.

Bristol Bay sockeye show the tightest timing in the dataset — Naknek's 50% passage has a 2.3-day standard deviation — but historical records end in 2011, making magnitude unforecastable. Kodiak pinks follow a strict 2-year cycle; Ayakulik pinks average 465,000 fish in even years, and 2026 is an even year.

Kodiak Chinook has cratered: Ayakulik's recent 3-year mean is 462 fish versus a long-term mean of 6,036. Bristol Bay sockeye timing remains rock-solid, but live counts in Salmon Finder are the only reliable signal for magnitude decisions.