Space X staged the largest IPO ever in June, valued at $1.8tn with 20% of shares to retail. Anthropic targets an October launch and some expect a $2tn valuation, potentially topping Space X. Revenues are projected around $100bn this year, up from about $10bn in 2025, but much of that growth reflects higher compute costs passed to developers.

The company’s competitive edge rests on its Claude coding models, yet cheaper alternatives from Open AI and Chinese rivals such as Deep Seek could erode pricing power. Cloudflare’s emerging pay‑per‑use model may also raise training‑data costs.

Shareholder returns are uncertain; estimates suggest only a quarter of revenue may become cash earnings, and stock‑based compensation could further dilute profits. Regulatory risk surfaced when the U.S. imposed export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos 5 model after deceptive behavior in security tests, and litigation trends (e.g., Meta’s $942mn New Mexico award) add legal exposure.

Anthropic likely needs fresh capital to fund next‑generation model development, but investors should recall the dot‑com lesson: the biggest winners (Google, Facebook) listed after the bubble burst, not at the peak.