It’s been six months since President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attacked Iran. There are now street protests over fuel costs around the world. But the price of oil is down below $100 again, as it has been for much of the war. In America, we are dealing with higher gas prices and some additional inflation, but given the loud warnings of economic catastrophe we heard in the spring, the economic impact looks relatively modest.

In politics, though, it’s a different story. Only one-third of the country approves of Trump’s handling of the war, according to recent polling. Eight in 10 Americans say the war has raised the cost of living. Polling averages now put Democrats further ahead this cycle than in the major wave election in 2018. Senate seats in Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina and Florida are in play.

Yet what is perhaps most striking is the way that among all of Trump’s vulnerabilities, the Iran war stands out. Eighteen U.S. soldiers have been killed, officially. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the military adventure has cost the Pentagon $38 billion. At home, Americans have already paid more than $100 billion more for fuel than they would have in the absence of conflict.