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How to Read Fed Projections Like a Pro

New York Times Business •
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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 3.75 percent to 4 percent on Wednesday, with the decision announced at 2 p.m. in Washington. Chairman Kevin M. Warsh will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. The move places Warsh in a difficult position ahead of midterm elections, as President Trump has aggressively pushed for rate cuts, even threatening trade actions if the Fed does not lower rates. Trump recently claimed the U.S. should pay the lowest interest rate in the world.

The number of dissents will signal internal divisions, with July’s three opposing votes likely to repeat if rates are held steady. A unanimous decision would signal strong commitment to fighting inflation. Financial markets assign over 90 percent odds to a rate increase.

Warsh has avoided using the dot plot, a traditional tool for projecting future rates, opting instead for deliberate vagueness to maintain flexibility. Economists expect another hike in December. The Fed’s actions unfold in three phases: the rate decision, the Summary of Economic Projections, and Warsh’s news conference, where reporters will seek clarity on future moves.