Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 18, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Geopolitics & Inflationary Pressures
Global markets adopted a calmer footing ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision as US equity-index futures pared earlier gains following reports that an airstrike on the South Pars gas field had occurred. Escalating Middle East warfare continues to drive inflation fears, leading traders to fully price in two interest-rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year, while economists have subsequently raised UK inflation forecasts as energy costs surge. Amid this turmoil, Brazil’s Treasury extended intervention for a third consecutive day to contain volatility stemming from surging oil prices, forcing some Brazilian corporate borrowers to scale back new bond sales.
Central Banks & Yield Movements
Bond traders are rapidly losing faith in even a single Fed rate cut this year as upward pressure from rising oil prices and a hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index reading bolstered the case for the central bank to remain on pause, causing Treasury yields to turn higher on Wednesday. While the Bank of Canada opted to hold its key rate steady at 2.25%, stating it would look through immediate war-induced inflation, markets are clearly reacting to the conflict, evidenced by global bonds enjoying their best streak since the war started as initial oil swings eased. Furthermore, a key Trump ally warned that the US economy is not strong enough to absorb the financial shock of an Iran conflict, citing inflation data that was “worse than we thought” even before the latest escalation.
Energy Markets & Supply Shocks
The upheaval in oil markets is proving deeper than immediate pricing suggests, with Carlyle Group Inc.’s Jeff Currie asserting that crude has not fully priced in the supply shock from the US-Israeli war on Iran, describing the current situation as the "mirror image of Covid." Despite the disruption, Saudi Arabia has already restored more than half of its oil exports by utilizing its Hormuz bypass contingency plan, though Asian refiners are moving earlier than normal to secure Russian crude from the Far East as prospects for a swift Middle Eastern resolution fade. This energy mess is manifesting in specific sectors, with US diesel prices surging faster than most petroleum products, and fertilizer giant Yara International curbing output in India due to constrained feedstock supply.
Corporate Strategy & Dealmaking
Amid market volatility, Goldman Sachs is advising dealmakers not to wait for ideal conditions before pursuing strategic mergers and acquisitions, signaling a push to get transactions done despite uncertainty. In corporate restructuring, pared-down spinoffs are experiencing a renaissance, with their stock gains outpacing multi-industry conglomerates, a trend leading even the parent company of the New York Rangers to consider a breakup. On the retail front, Williams-Sonoma provided an upbeat forecast projecting 2% to 6% comparable sales growth, aiming to gain market share despite the dynamic environment, while Jabil also lifted its annual outlook following robust demand in its intelligent infrastructure segment.
Private Markets & Regulatory Shifts
Stress is spreading within the $1.8 trillion private credit market, with the latest casualty being a fund holding consumer and small-business loans from firms like Affirm and Block coming under pressure, leading Pacific Investment Management Co. to actively steer clear of cheap private credit loans that it deems "pretty bad." Meanwhile, law firm Kirkland & Ellis achieved a record $11 billion in annual revenues, becoming the first firm to break that threshold, even as the broader private equity sector slows. In index management, the influx of large private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI is putting pressure on benchmark index rules, forcing index controllers to rethink the traditional path for inclusion in major US stock benchmarks.
Technology & Policy Debates
The push for AI infrastructure is driving domestic manufacturing, with the US now possessing the capacity to supply 100% of its energy-storage systems domestically, a milestone in reducing reliance on foreign supply chains. In retail technology, Walmart secured patents that grant its algorithms greater sway over consumer pricing, occurring amidst intense debate over automated pricing systems. On the political tech front, Silicon Valley firms have remained reluctant to directly challenge Trump administration officials regarding contract disputes involving the A.I. start-up Anthropic, while Google rebuilds its Defense Department ties, positioning itself to benefit from competitors’ controversies.