President Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters in the last election have reversed. Democrats now lead Republicans among Hispanic likely voters by 35 points, 64-29, on the generic congressional ballot. In 2024, Kamala Harris led Trump by only seven points among Hispanic voters. This shift could remake the electoral map, threatening Republican incumbents, gerrymanders, and Texas.

Applying recent Times/Siena trends, Democratic gains would imperil Republicans in over a dozen districts Trump won by double digits but depend on Hispanic support. Texas and Florida would become ground zero for a possible Democratic tsunami.

Measuring shifts among smaller groups is challenging, but polls show Republicans in heavily Hispanic districts are in jeopardy. The reason: Trump. His approval among Hispanic voters has fallen to the 20s, including 26% in the latest Times/Siena poll. Only 8% approved of his handling of the cost of living, 18% on the economy, and 26% on immigration.

State and district polling now confirms Democratic gains. James Talarico leads the Texas Senate race, ahead among Hispanic voters by at least 20 points. Gina Hinojosa is competitive for governor against Greg Abbott, who leads by three points. María Elvira Salazar, representing Florida’s 27th District, aired an ad saying Hispanics who helped Trump in 2024 “feel betrayed today.” Republicans had drawn aggressive gerrymanders assuming Hispanic support.