The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, moving the target range to 3.75% to 4%. This would be the first rate increase under Chairman Kevin M. Warsh, who took over in May and faces pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower rates and threatened trade actions if the Fed does not comply.

The decision will be announced at 2 p.m. in Washington, followed by Warsh’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Markets assign over a 90% probability to a hike, with most economists expecting further increases in December. Warsh has avoided using the dot plot, preferring flexibility, and his framing of the decision will shape future policy expectations. A unanimous vote would signal strong inflation-fighting resolve, while dissents could indicate internal disagreement.

The Fed’s statement, Summary of Economic Projections, and press conference will unfold in three phases, with investors closely watching for clues about the trajectory of rates, inflation, and economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to multi-year highs, reflecting market anticipation of tighter policy.