Prediction market operator Kalshi has banned former Congress member George Santos for life after accusing him of manipulating contracts related to his State of the Union attendance. Santos placed bets in February 2026 and made public statements to influence prices, eventually earning close to $18,000. Kalshi imposed a fine exceeding $71,000 and cited his lack of cooperation as grounds for the permanent ban.

The action follows increased regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading concerns. Santos had previously been reported to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which issued civil penalties against him in July. His trading strategy involved betting 'yes' on his attendance, then switching to 'no' while posting misleading social media updates about his plans, profiting from price movements.

He did not attend the address. Santos, who represented a Long Island, New York district before expulsion for fraud, pleaded guilty to wire fraud and identity theft and was sentenced to over seven years in prison before his sentence was commuted by President Donald Trump. He responded to the ban on X, criticizing Kalshi as a 'gambling platform'.

The CFTC has pursued other high-profile cases, including a soldier profiting from classified Venezuela mission bets and a Trump teleprompter operator fined $172,000 for trading on presidential speech outcomes.