The bond market is nearing a yield curve inversion, a historical precursor to recession. The spread between 10-year and two-year Treasuries narrowed to 0.17 percentage points, raising fears the US economy may stall. An inverted curve has preceded each of the last eight recessions since the 1960s, though its reliability was questioned earlier this decade.

Investors interpret the flattening as a signal the Federal Reserve may over-tighten policy. “Seeing the two- and 10-year curve invert or flatten dramatically calls into question the idea that the economy is very strong,” said Zach Griffiths at Credit Sights. Upcoming data on inflation and jobs could reinforce expectations for another rate hike. The personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to show accelerated price pressures in August, while September’s jobs report is projected to show solid hiring.

Earnings reports from Jefferies, Car Max, Carnival, and Micron Technology are due this week. Meanwhile, AI-related stocks have swung wildly, with sentiment shifts sending hundreds of billions in and out of the sector. “The moves are staggering in both directions,” said Rhys Williams at Wayve Capital Management. Micron’s earnings will offer insight into AI spending trends.