Brent crude sits just above $104 as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut since March, with Saudi output dropping 1.9 million barrels per day in August. The European Union imports 57% of its energy and spent €340 billion on fossil fuel imports last year. Yet the bloc's Commission trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%, with unemployment holding around 6%.

The EU now runs on 44% less energy per euro of output than in 1995, with over a third of improvements since 2019. From 1990 to 2024, the bloc grew its economy 70% while cutting greenhouse gas emissions 40%. Primary energy consumption fell 9.6% in the decade to 2024, with Germany down 21%.

When energy policy isn't explicitly labeled as such—like Paris building 1,000km of cycling infrastructure—it still reduces imports permanently. Spain outperformed Germany, France, and Italy in Q2 2025 growth, with Goldman Sachs citing structural resilience. Renewables covered 55.5% of Spain's generation in 2025, while Italy imports 74.8% of its energy.