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5 Key Midterm Races to Watch This Fall

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It's Labor Day, signaling the sprint to the November midterm elections as both parties battle for control of Congress and governorships. Five races offer answers to the biggest questions at the center of the midterms, including how attitudes about President Trump and the economy will shape results.

Will Trump and his party face an economic backlash in the heartland? Iowa, a reliably red state Trump won three times, hosts a Senate race between Representative Ashley Hinson, a Republican, and State Representative Josh Turek, a Democrat. The contest tests whether rural voters will turn against Republicans over Trump's tariffs, which have hit agricultural and manufacturing industries hard, and high fertilizer and gas prices driven by the war in Iran. Hinson has praised Trump's tax cuts and defended tariffs as necessary, while Turek blames Republicans for farmers' economic challenges. The race could determine Senate control, which analysts see as increasingly up for grabs.

Will the G.O.P.'s gambit on gerrymandering and Latino voters work or backfire? In Texas, Republicans redrew the Congressional map to gain up to five House seats, betting they could keep inroads Trump made with Latino voters in 2024. In the 28th Congressional District, Representative Henry Cuellar, a moderate Democrat Trump pardoned as he awaited a bribery trial, faces county judge Tano Tijerina. The district favored Trump by about 10 points under new boundaries with 91% Hispanic voters. Recent signs suggest Trump's support in South Texas is waning amid economic and immigration concerns.

How is the Democratic brand doing in the South? Democrats hope gains in Georgia and North Carolina. Georgia's open governor's race is highly competitive; the state hasn't had a Democratic governor since Roy Barnes left office in 2003. Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee, served in President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s administration.